Protests | Serbia: "We are facing a conflict between two futures"

The student-led protests in Serbia show no signs of abating. On June 28, there were renewed large demonstrations with around 150,000 participants. Since then, there have been repeated street fights and blockades throughout the country. They are demanding early elections and the release of all arrested demonstrators. Will the students win?

That's the million-dollar question. In a sense, they've already won, considering the hearts and minds of the people. They mobilized almost the entire society around the idea of ​​justice. That was abstract enough to draw many people along. They also used direct actions like marches, rallies, and performances—this gave many people back a lost sense of solidarity. In that respect, it's a great victory. But of course, that doesn't mean they've also won politically.

To put it another way: Can the students win against Aleksandar Vučić and the system he created?

There are two views on this. Some say: No, it won't work with movements like this. Vučić was legally elected and internationally recognized. New elections would be needed to overthrow the regime. The other – more idealistic – opinion is that students and citizens must keep up the pressure until the system implodes on its own.

Which of the two strategies is most likely to be successful?

The more realistic path is to rely on institutional solutions such as new elections. But these, too, will again take place under regime control, meaning they won't be truly free and fair. This is the classic mechanism for a transfer of power and would be supported by the EU and others. The question remains: Can the regime be defeated in unfair elections? This is an open question hanging over the movement.

That sounds pretty pessimistic.

Yes, it is. We are in a paradoxical situation: The students and many citizens have won the battle for legitimacy. The majority supports the students' demands. But institutional paths to change are blocked because Vučić won't allow negotiations. So we wait for the unexpected, like the Novi Sad tragedy that changed everything.

Can such an unexpected event occur again?

The unexpected could happen again—perhaps if the regime panics and provokes a revolt. At the same time, Vučić has managed to secure support from Russia, China, the EU, and probably the US as well. This has never happened before. This gives him the confidence to prevail against the movement.

The EU's hypocrisy is obvious: The students are fighting for ideals that should actually define the EU, but the EU prefers to support stability and economic interests, such as the lithium project in western Serbia. Citizens perceive this as a betrayal of democracy and the rule of law. We are now in a phase in which Serbian and other societies in the region are increasingly becoming more like Latin American conditions: Local oligarchies serve international interests.

So Vučić is a guarantor of stability in the region?

Yes, he's playing with interests, such as those of the German auto industry. Western players are counting on him because he delivers, as Ursula von der Leyen has said. This is realpolitik: Economic and geopolitical interests count. Vučić knows how to exploit this. Within the country itself, however, support for him and his legitimacy are dwindling. At the same time, he has undermined Serbia's institutions and planted loyalists everywhere. His regime is closely entangled with the underworld—that's no secret.

Compared to the much smaller protests in Georgia since last October or the 2014 Euromaidan in Ukraine, Western support for the Serbian protests is virtually nonexistent. Trust in the EU is at an all-time low—curiously, Vučić is now the biggest advocate of EU membership.

At the protests, one hardly sees any EU flags; instead, Serbian flags are the most common. Has the West disappeared as a role model?

The protests are ideologically very diverse, which often confuses outsiders. The students are committed to direct democracy, such as plenary sessions, which are more left-wing. However, their demands are very liberal: They want an independent judiciary, the rule of law, and transparency. On the streets, there are many national symbols, slogans, and even nationalism. This is perceived as a new sense of solidarity or even a new sense of patriotism.

The protests erupted after the tragedy of November 1, 2024, in Novi Sad. There had already been many scandals and violence before. Why this movement now?

The students only became politically active after this tragedy. Before that, they had little interest in politics. But society had experienced 13 years of scandals, crime, drug smuggling, and violence – it had all been building up. Previous protests had never been able to mobilize so many people. This time, it was simply too much. Sometimes you need a trigger like this. We are now in a political crisis in which many people are no longer willing to simply give up.

Are there also socioeconomic reasons for the protests?

Sure, but it would be too easy to blame everything on poverty or unemployment. Thanks to the country's opening to investors and many questionable deals, there are now even more jobs. So far, Vučić has given the workers just enough to prevent an uprising. But now, many different social classes are taking to the streets together against the regime because they no longer see a future in Serbia. Furthermore, there is great fear of the country being sold off and environmental destruction; people feel like the rug is literally being pulled out from under them.

The movement unites various social groups, but when it comes to more far-reaching social demands, I'm skeptical whether that would have a mobilizing effect today. Across Europe, the left has lost this potential. In Serbia, the movement is currently fighting for the most basic democratic rights.

Has a new political culture emerged as a result of the protests?

Absolutely. For someone like me who has worked in the field of activist aesthetics, this is an impressive example of political creativity. The last few months have been full of it. For many, it has become completely normal to go to demonstrations every day, to plenary sessions in the evening, or to political debates. This has also changed everyday life – at the moment, there is still optimism and hope, but also fear of what's to come.

If the protest movement wins, the country will be characterized by courage and optimism. If the regime prevails, there will be depression and an exodus of young people. If Vučić succeeds in purging the universities of critical students and professors, many will leave the country. We are faced with a conflict between two futures: one that offers hope, and one that takes away all hope.