Trump, Hollywood and the tariff plans: How a hostility could escalate

The incumbent US president dislikes Hollywood. Donald Trump has never made a secret of this. He enjoys sitting in front of the television during the Oscars and mocking the awards ceremony, especially when a foreign film wins, such as the South Korean capitalism satire "Parasite" (2019). He says the Los Angeles film community is too woke and too elitist for him.

Conversely, Hollywood doesn't like Trump either. Movie stars pointedly sided with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris before the election and remained in shock after her defeat – hoping the storm would pass. Now the storm is here. In any case, something threatening could be brewing.

Trump has announced 100 percent tariffs on films not produced in the US. The film industry in America is dying, he said. "Hollywood and many other areas in the US are being destroyed," he wrote on his online platform Truth Social, going so far as to say that "national security" is being threatened. He also claimed that propaganda is being smuggled into the country through the films.

Films must finally be produced in the US again. "We will bring the industry back," Trump said. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick should take up the issue. He now faces the difficult task of figuring out how to measure the value of a movie. After all, it also involves intangible assets.

The panic has now reached the US film industry, as US trade media outlets from "Deadline" to "Variety" claim to have learned behind closed doors from officials. Crisis meetings have been scheduled, and experts are warning of the catastrophic consequences of the tariffs. The problem so far, however, is that no one really knows what to fear. Trump's wording is so vague that it's unclear which works are even affected.

This begins with the fact that it's unclear whether the potential tariffs also apply to hit series that streaming companies film around the world. "Squid Game," for example—the third season starts at the end of June—is being shot in South Korea. Netflix has made it its policy to film local productions for the global market in many locations, ideally a win-win situation for both sides.

Do Trump's plans also jeopardize US projects that are being developed elsewhere because the plot demands it? Should top agents like Ethan Hunt complete their missions to save the world within their own borders in the future? The eighth "Mission Impossible" blockbuster, "The Final Reckoning," which opens in theaters this month, was filmed primarily in Europe. And should the new James Bond, following the recent sale to the US corporation Amazon, dig up the supervillain's headquarters in Mar-a-Lago out of necessity because he's banned from the global sightseeing tour?

First and foremost, Hollywood is moving abroad because filming is cheaper there than in Los Angeles. The US film industry is still the most important in the world. And yet, Hollywood, planted in the Californian desert sands more than a century ago, is now more of a mythical concept. Filming takes place where tax breaks are tempting. Hollywood makes every effort to cash in on the subsidies offered by other countries.

Cinema is a global circus. Whether it's "Avatar" or "The Avengers," such blockbusters are rarely filmed in Hollywood.

So what is Trump aiming for with his latest tariff escapades? Does he want to hit the recalcitrant countries of Canada and Australia? These two countries are among Hollywood's favorite destinations for major productions, just like Eastern Europe. Germany is trying to bring one or two US productions to Babelsberg through the German Federal Film Fund.

Or is Trump concerned about China, which, as a result of the general tariff war, has announced that it intends to show fewer Hollywood blockbusters in its own country in the future? The world's second-largest film market intends to increasingly focus on its own productions and, of course, also export them.

Perhaps Trump should have first inquired with his appointed "Hollywood ambassadors," Jon Voight, Mel Gibson, and Sylvester Stallone. While nothing has been heard from the latter two so far, Voight has sought talks with industry representatives and has even met with the president in Florida. His not-so-surprising idea for boosting the USA's reputation as a filming location: tax breaks at home. Will Trump like that?

There's a bitter irony in his ideas: Hollywood has weathered so many threats in recent years—the coronavirus pandemic, months of strikes, and most recently, major fires. The industry is currently on the upswing again. Variety has done the math for this year: revenue is rising significantly. Potential hits like the recently released Marvel film "Thunderbolts*" aren't even priced in yet.

But now it looks as if his own president could be jeopardizing the very foundation of the business. Perhaps Trump has just thrown out a scare tactic: He's already stated that he wants to talk to Hollywood executives to reach a good agreement: "I want to make sure they're happy with this, because we're talking about jobs."

So what if Hollywood producers duly bow down to him to negotiate a "deal"? After all, others have done the same in recent months to avoid the man in the White House's revenge.