20 Years of Podcasts: Why the Industry is Facing Another Upheaval

One of today's most popular media formats is named after a product that no longer exists. The podcast got its name from Apple's iPod – the small, handy media player from the Californian tech giant. British digital journalist Ben Hammersley is considered the first to use the term in a 2004 Guardian article – at the time, he was speculating about what one might call this new form of "amateur radio." Shortly thereafter, almost exactly 20 years ago, Apple officially integrated the podcast function into its iTunes music software – making the format accessible to the masses.

The iPod was eventually replaced by the smartphone and hasn't been produced for years. Podcasts, on the other hand, are more successful than ever: Entire industries have evolved around the audio format, and well-known podcast hosts reach audiences of millions every week—and some have even become stars thanks to the format.

And yet, the audio industry is constantly changing. Current market developments could now present podcasters with new challenges. But not only those.

At the beginning of the 2000s, hardly anyone would have thought it possible that the podcast format would ever become a mass market. The internet was still young at the time, bandwidth was limited, and the media offering was firmly in the hands of TV companies, newspaper publishers, and radio stations. Early social media platforms like Myspace didn't achieve their breakthrough until a few years later.

Nevertheless, there were already pioneers of podcasting back then: Tristan Louis and Dave Winer are now considered the inventors of the first self-published audio show, and MTV presenter Adam Curry is considered the first podcast host.

In the early 2000s, Curry and Winer developed a program that allowed users to download online radio programs directly to Apple's iPod using an RSS feed. With the official integration of podcasts into iTunes, the first celebrities began using the medium, including British comedian Ricky Gervais.

Germany also has pioneers: One of the first German productions is "Schlaflos in München" (Sleepless in Munich) by journalist Larissa Vassilian, which began in 2005. "Küchenradio" (Kitchen Radio) was the first podcast format from 2005, featuring Philip Banse, among others, who is now known for his political podcast "Lage der Nation." Productions from this era are still active, such as the "Whocast" about "Doctor Who" (from 2006), the Chaos Computer Club's "Chaosradio" (from 2006), and the "Medienkuh" (Media Cow) about the television industry (from 2009).

Public broadcasters also began offering selected radio programs or talk shows as podcasts. While the medium initially remained a niche, Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg (RBB) achieved a coup a few years later: The radio show "Sanft & Sorgfältig" (Sanft & Sorgfältig) with Jan Böhmermann and Olli Schulz became a consistent number one in the podcast charts, paving the way for the now successful genre of "talk podcasts."

What's more, the follow-up production with Böhmermann and Schulz ("Fest & Flauschig") was also the first podcast in 2016 that was no longer available via RSS feed across all platforms – but exclusively on the Swedish music streaming service Spotify. Exclusive productions that can only be heard with a paid subscription followed shortly thereafter. Providers include Amazon's Audible and the Danish service Podimo.

Today, the podcast industry has little in common with the basement productions of the early 2000s. In addition to platforms and podcast stars , numerous production companies and marketers have established themselves in the market in recent years, employing hundreds of people in Germany alone. There are no reliable figures on the success of the podcast industry—view counts are traditionally not visible on the platforms. However, a study by the media consulting firm Owl & Co estimates that the industry's current advertising revenue worldwide amounts to 7.3 billion US dollars annually.

The content offering is also much broader today than it was at launch: According to the current Spotify charts, German audiences most enjoy comedy podcasts like "Gemischtes Hack" by Felix Lobrecht and Tommi Schmitt, followed by true crime formats like "Mordlust" and celebrity podcasts like "Kaulitz Hills" by Tokio Hotel twins Tom and Bill Kaulitz. Also popular are numerous influencer podcasts like "Edeltalk" by Papaplatte and Reeze or "Laurel & Doof" by Laserluca and Selfiesandra.

Political podcasts such as "Lanz und Precht," "Ronzheimer," and "Apokalypse & Filterkaffee" also top the list, as do long narrative formats with multiple episodes that now resemble elaborate series productions. A current example is Deutschlandfunk's "Die Peter Thiel Story," which is currently at the top of Apple's podcast charts.

The hype surrounding audio shows is certainly a bit unusual—after all, it breaks with all the developments in the rest of the media world. While short videos are booming on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, music is becoming ever shorter , and attention spans seem to be shrinking due to social media, the podcast format has been countering this for years with relaxed, sometimes hour-long conversation formats—and there's little sign that media change will change that.

Podcasts don't have to be compelling with quick cuts, run little risk of someone tuning out or swiping on, aren't driven by algorithms, and there's no broadcast deadline or time limit. Hardly any other format allows topics to be debated in such depth as this one.

Precisely because listeners spend so much time with their favorite podcasts, this is particularly attractive for the advertising industry: A close connection with the audience is considered particularly valuable in the battle for attention. Political actors have also recognized this: During the US election campaign , Donald Trump's presence in long-form podcast formats and Twitch streams was considered a factor in why the current president was able to achieve a strong electoral result, especially among young men.

They're male, loud, and repeatedly cross boundaries: Influencers have built their own reactionary echo chambers on social media. Donald Trump's campaign team cleverly used these young men to further their own agenda. A tactic that could also be adopted in Germany.

It's virtually impossible that the podcast industry will look the same in ten years as it does today. Since its inception, podcasters have been confronted with the constant changes in their medium. Commercialization and the emergence of exclusive podcasts in the mid-2010s were among these changes.

Surprisingly, this development is now on the decline: Spotify, for example, is now releasing its flagship productions to other platforms – high advertising revenues now seem more important than exclusive ties.

Meanwhile, others are working on ideas to further develop the podcast genre: CampfireFM , a German app, was recently launched to improve the community experience between podcasters and their fans.

Another trend is video recordings. While for years podcasts were purely audio productions that people listened to while driving, on the train, or ironing, many producers now also rely on accompanying moving images. Some record their conversations on webcams, while others have even built elaborate sets that are in no way inferior to those of a TV talk show.

Short videos cut from podcast recordings are now flooding social media, almost forming a genre in their own right. Just a few days ago, a clip from Janne Rust's "Unter uns gesagt" podcast caused a viral moment on the TikTok platform: Culcha Candela singer Mateo Jasik tried to justify a failed conversation with a fan . The clip received hundreds of thousands of views – and might never have reached them if it weren't for the telling video.

Another effect: Last fall, figures from Edison Research indicated that the video platform YouTube has now overtaken its competitors Apple Podcasts and, in particular, market leader Spotify in podcast usage in the US. And the most successful formats on the platform all have accompanying moving images.

Does this development mean that the future of podcasting lies in video, and that podcasters will have to adapt? Perhaps. But it's much more likely that the trend will have an impact on a completely different industry: television.

YouTube recently also reported that the platform's content is increasingly being consumed on large televisions . According to YouTube CEO Neal Mohan, TV screens have, for the first time, replaced smartphones as the device used most frequently for YouTube viewing in the US. Traditional YouTube formats likely contributed to this – but, given the growing numbers, video podcasts clearly also contributed.

It's quite possible that the tried-and-true podcast format is currently evolving from a casual medium to one that people can also watch in the evenings at home on the sofa. For many consumers, these long-form conversations in their chic studios have long been a tempting alternative to traditional TV talk shows. While the protagonists argue and interrupt, and the host is always on the clock, video podcasts offer exactly what's needed most in turbulent times: a relaxed perspective on topics, without time pressure or excessive sensationalism. This could still mean a bright future for podcasts.