Africa | Tanzania: President on authoritarian paths

Anyone traveling through Tanzania these days cannot fail to notice the numerous green flags of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (Party of the Revolution, CCM) on the streets. Green T-shirts can be seen all over the country at organized celebrations for the ruling party. Buses bearing the likeness of President Samia Suluhu Hassan transport people to events at state expense, and entire regions are lined with signs of praise. The CCM's campaign for the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for this fall has been in full swing for weeks, even though the exact date has not yet been announced. Posters from other parties are completely absent from the streets.

The elections are considered particularly important because they determine the future of the still young democracy in this country with a population of around 60 million, where the one-party system was only abolished in 1992. The scenario: Either Tanzania develops into an authoritarian regime like its eastern neighbors Uganda and Rwanda, or the country succeeds in consolidating democracy.

While public discontent with the political style of the incumbent president and the president running for election is being discussed throughout the country, the chances of democratic, fair, and transparent elections are slim.

"Mama Samia," as she is known, unexpectedly became the first woman to hold the presidency in 2021 as the incumbent vice president following the sudden death of then-President John Pombe Magufuli. Now she aims to run for office for the first time. However, she must overcome several hurdles to do so.

Overexploitation by tourism

The president is viewed by the population as incompetent. She has initiated few notable initiatives; the country's development projects were largely conceived under Magufuli. While Magufuli was seen as someone who, albeit authoritarian, championed national interests, Samia now appears to be solely concerned with maintaining power. She has not pursued Magufuli's attempts to curb corruption and introduce appropriate oversight mechanisms, which is why corruption is becoming increasingly widespread.

Samia's economic policy is primarily based on an uncontrolled opening to foreign investors. The interests of the local population are largely ignored; state-imposed land evictions are commonplace. Demands for individual rights against the powerful state apparatus are rarely successful.

Samia's strategy to stimulate the economy relies primarily on revenue from tourism. Her ambitious goal is to increase the number of visitors to 5.3 million per year, generating $3.9 billion in revenue, equivalent to approximately 25 percent of the gross domestic product. However, these revenues rarely reach the respective regions to improve their urgently needed infrastructure. On the contrary, communities are largely left to deal with the consequences of inconsiderate tourism—such as water shortages and mountains of garbage—on their own.

Under Samia, the hunting business is also flourishing again. In addition to trophy hunting for the wealthy, this also involves the export of live, mostly protected species of animals. The flow of money from these businesses is highly opaque, as revenues are generated through closed procedures for the awarding of hunting concessions and largely remain with the government.

From reformer to autocrat

At the beginning of her term, Samia presented herself as a reformer, claiming to want to strengthen freedom of speech, press, and assembly, which had been severely restricted under Magufuli. This impressed not only the international community but also parts of the Tanzanian opposition.

When opposition parties presented proposals for constitutional and electoral reform to strengthen federal structures and establish an independent electoral commission, Samia backed down. The president did not want to have her powers curtailed, nor did the CCM, which governs and exercises control down to the smallest municipalities, want to lose its role as the de facto state party. Corresponding legislative amendments were therefore not pursued further. On the contrary: Samia does not want to limit her extensive powers and control over the electoral commission, but rather maintain them.

Although the CCM presents a united front to the outside world, Samia's position of power within the party is by no means secure. Former Magufuli loyalists are working against her, which is why internal party struggles rage behind the scenes. The president publicly criticizes dissidents or even punishes them, as the recent case of CCM parliamentarian and bishop Gwajima Weighs demonstrates. He had criticized the growing number of disappeared and tortured opposition figures. As a result, his church, the "Glory of Christ Tanzania," with over 2,000 congregations across the country, had its registration revoked and was ordered to immediately cease all activities. This exemplary approach to dealing with internal party criticism did not fail to have its effect.

However, the president has not one, but two Achilles' heels: First, women are systematically discriminated against in Tanzania's strongly patriarchal society; so-called special seats, reserved for women, have even been created to allow them to participate in parliament. Second, Samia is the first female head of government to come from Zanzibar, rather than the mainland, where the majority of Tanzania's population lives. This makes her vulnerable. To secure majorities in the elections, the president therefore needs not only control over the electoral commission, but also a weakened opposition.

Divided opposition

Tanzania's largest opposition party, Chadema, insists that democratic elections can only take place if a reform of the largely opaque (and therefore open to manipulation) electoral law is first passed. Under the leadership of newly elected party leader Tundu Lissu, the party is therefore running the "No Reforms, No Elections" campaign, which is receiving widespread public support.

To thwart the popular campaign, Samia is taking tough action against Chadema. After the party refused to sign the code of conduct required for participation in the election in April – which she criticized as illegitimate – the party was barred from the election. Lissu herself has been charged with high treason, which is punishable by death in Tanzania. The trial has been going on for weeks. Due to Lissu's international fame and the resulting international attention, Chadema has so far managed to use the trial as a platform for its political demands. If the rest of the world turns a blind eye at some point, however, that may be over.

Meanwhile, the government is cracking down on the opposition Chadema party. It has revoked its registration, dismissed its entire leadership, frozen its accounts, and banned any support for the party.

The fragility of the situation became apparent during the first days of the trial. When lawyers arrived from Kenya and Uganda to assist the trial, several were expelled. The regime was particularly brutal against two foreign trial supporters, who were detained, tortured, and later abandoned near the border.

Meanwhile, the government is cracking down on Chadema with all its might. It revoked the party's registration, dismissed its entire leadership, froze its accounts, and prohibited any support for the party. Well-known Chadema leaders told me in conversations that they have repeatedly been offered large sums of money if they resign from their political positions. At the same time, they fear for their well-being and live in constant fear of being poisoned; for this reason, they always keep their drinks in the safe when staying in hotels.

The second major opposition party, the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT), is pursuing a different approach. While it also calls for electoral reform, its primary focus is on constitutional reform. It has approved the Code of Conduct and is fielding its own presidential candidate, party leader Dorothy Semu. Meanwhile, the first Chadema MPs are already switching to ACT to retain their seats.

The ACT represents more progressive positions. In its manifesto, it calls for free education and healthcare, pro-poor budget restructuring, and more local economic development. If the alliance is denied the right to register its own candidates, it intends to mobilize against the CCM candidates, as it is possible to vote "no" in Tanzania. Despite all the anticipated irregularities, this is seen as an important process of democratic participation that could seriously impact the ruling party.

So far, the party claims to have been spared major attacks by the government. However, appearances in public media are either not taking place or are being canceled at short notice, so the opposition party can speak almost exclusively through its own media outlets.

Tanzania at the crossroads

The CCM itself is announcing a huge influx of new members, thereby underscoring its popular support. However, my interlocutors told me that streets and regions considered particularly opposition-friendly are being cut off from necessary infrastructure (such as water and electricity supplies). New access points will only be installed once the municipalities have demonstrated the desired number of new CCM members.

Although the election campaign hasn't even begun yet, the CCM is already waging a tough campaign. The population is intimidated by state repression. On the Zanzibar Islands, which are considered hostile to the government, open resistance is still being expressed. On the mainland, however, there appears to be no widespread mobilization against government policies despite the immense discontent, unlike in neighboring Kenya.

However, the authoritarian regime is not yet consolidated. Therefore, international attention – which, with appropriate pressure, could have a de-escalating effect and provide a protective umbrella for the opposition – is of great importance. One can only hope that the international community will act accordingly.