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Ceasefire | Iran and Israel: A shaky deal

Ceasefire | Iran and Israel: A shaky deal
All ready: An armed Israeli pushes a stroller along a street in Tel Aviv on June 24, 2024.

Shortly before sunrise on Tuesday, the Iran-Israel war appeared to be coming to an end as unexpectedly as it had begun. Donald Trump announced succinctly on his online news service Truth Social that the guns would fall silent at 3:30 a.m. He then addressed the governments in Jerusalem and Tehran directly: "Please do not violate the agreement." Shortly thereafter, the Israeli government confirmed that it intended to cease attacks on Iran. "We have two countries that have fought so long and so hard that they don't know what the hell they're doing," Trump reprimanded the two warring parties.

When the Tehran Times and other Iranian media denied the existence of any collusion with the US president, many observers still believed there was a communications problem in the city of 12 million. On Monday, huge clouds of smoke hung over Tehran , terrifying its residents. Israeli fighter jets targeted the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard and the buildings of the domestic intelligence service and the Basij militia.

Flying visit to Moscow

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqi, who traveled from Istanbul to Moscow on Monday, ruled out continuing the nuclear talks under fire, but also called for an end to the conflict. Iran had been attacked illegally under international law and was relying on the diplomatic support of the United Nations and friendly countries, Araqi said. He responded cynically to a call from a trio of European diplomats to return to the negotiating table: "When we negotiated with the US, we were bombed by Israel. When we then negotiated with Europe, US bombs destroyed the diplomacy."

In the morning, residents of several Israeli cities ran for their air-raid shelters again, as they had done so often in the past week. At 7 a.m., an Iranian long-range missile struck an apartment building in the city of Beersheba. The result was four dead and 22 injured, and rescue services were still searching for missing people at midday. Between 5 a.m. and 10:30 a.m., air raid sirens repeatedly sounded. "Although the number of victims is still far lower than in Iran and incomparable to Gaza," says Shaim, a student from Jerusalem. "But the mere fact that so many Iranian rockets cannot be intercepted shocks many of my friends."

Long lines formed at the border crossing with Egypt on Monday. Foreign nationals and tourists living in Israel are trying to make their way overland to the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, as the airport in Tel Aviv is closed. Israeli citizens are currently not allowed to leave the country. Authorities want to avoid the impression that a large-scale wave of departures is taking place.

"Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition rejects anything that could be interpreted as weakness," says Ori Goldberg, an analyst from Haifa. "So Monday morning's escalation was foreseeable." Defense Minister Israel Katz announced an attack on the center of the Iranian capital in response to the deaths in Beersheba. The destruction of further government buildings or barracks of the up to one million-strong paramilitary force could lead to a cycle of violence that would be difficult to stop and could precipitate a global economic crisis.

Revolutionary Guards await orders to deploy

The Iranian parliament had already voted on Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, thus blocking the export of around 20 percent of the world's oil and gas. The Revolutionary Guard's naval units are still awaiting orders to deploy. The leadership in Tehran does not want to jeopardize the significantly improved relations with Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia. Their entire oil and gas production depends on the bottleneck of Hormuz, a strait up to 40 kilometers wide. The missile attack on a US military base in Qatar was already a shock.

Although the US military had been informed six hours before the Iranian reaction, the spectacle of rising anti-aircraft missiles and the trails of Iranian long-range missiles in the sky above Doha represented a paradigm shift for the Gulf states. An escalating war threatened their business model, which relies on investments and experts from around the world and on their reputation for safety and security. The travel warnings issued by many European countries for the Gulf states have led to hectic diplomatic activity.

In Iran, few people believe that Benjamin Netanyahu will end the war. The bombing of downtown Tehran is seen as the beginning of the destruction of all state structures. Only on Sunday, just before the US entered the war, had many residents from the surrounding areas returned. Only a few families can afford to live as refugees outside the city, and they also fear for their savings, which they keep in cash or gold in safes at home because of the sanctions. "For fear that Tehran will become Gaza," says student Ava "nd" over the phone, "nationalist tones are now being adopted everywhere. Netanyahu's call for the opposition to take to the streets and bomb at the same time was a big mistake." Whether the ceasefire is more than a respite remains open.

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