Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Union believe that optimism can be felt again.

Despite the failed election of constitutional judges in the Bundestag, Friedrich Merz believes his government is on track. It has implemented its tight program precisely until the summer recess, the Chancellor said a few days ago on ARD. And, in the Chancellor's view, the "sensible policies" of the CDU-SPD coalition are already having the desired effect.

Before taking office, Merz announced: "It's important that we improve the mood in the country by the summer." In his own estimation, he has delivered precisely that. A few weeks after taking office, Merz even declared: "This is one of the best federal governments we've had in Germany in recent decades."

However, many in the country are still not convinced of this. A brief overview:

In a YouGov survey commissioned by the German Press Agency, the institute asked nearly 2,200 people whether Germany had changed for the better, for the worse, or not at all since Merz took office. The results: 22 percent saw a change for the better, 32 percent for the worse. For 37 percent, nothing has changed.

Only 2 percent completely agreed with the Chancellor's view of "one of the best federal governments" of recent decades, while another 15 percent somewhat agreed. 71 percent somewhat disagreed or strongly disagreed. 12 percent did not provide an answer.

"A majority is dissatisfied with the work of the federal government," says pollster Peter Matuschek of the Forsa Institute. "The same applies to the work of the Chancellor." In recent polls, the CDU/CSU are still below their February election result, with 26 to 27.5 percent, and the SPD is also below that, with 13 to 15 percent.

With regard to the economy, pessimistic expectations still prevail, Matuschek adds. "Currently, 51 percent of Germans expect the economic situation in the country to worsen, and only 22 percent expect it to improve." The trend has recently been pointing downwards rather than upwards.

The Ifo economic research institute is indeed measuring an upward trend with its business climate index: "Sentiment among companies in Germany has improved," the institute wrote in June. "The German economy is slowly gaining confidence." However, at 88.4 points, the business climate index was significantly weaker than shortly after the traffic light coalition government took office: In February 2022, it was at 98.9 points despite the Ukraine crisis. Ifo CEO Clemens Fuest comments on the situation today: "So far, the principle of hope has been the dominant one."

Consumer sentiment – measured by the GfK Consumer Climate Index – also remains subdued. While economic and income expectations have improved, people are holding back on spending and saving instead. "The consumer climate indicator forecasts a slight decline of 0.3 points to -20.3 points for July 2025 compared to the previous month (revised -20.0 points)," the consumer researchers concluded.

According to CEO Tanja Gönner, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) is seeing more optimism among companies. "However, the mood is better than the current situation," Gönner told dpa. "We continue to expect a slight recession this year." The signs are only more positive for next year.

The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce takes a similar view. "The hoped-for upturn has so far been slow to materialize, and even the current economic data doesn't give us any reason to sound the all-clear," says CEO Helena Melnikov. At the same time, she praised the speed with which the new federal government has put forward its initial proposals. "This gives hope and shows that things can be done differently," Melnikov says.

The Federal Association of Consumer Organizations calls it a mistake that the coalition government failed to reduce the electricity tax for everyone as promised. "Many consumers are suffering from the persistently high cost of living," says board member Ramona Pop. "A change in sentiment is only possible with confident consumers – and that requires a clear signal of electricity cost reduction."

"In principle, moods can improve – or worsen – very quickly," says pollster Matthias Jung of the Research Group Elections. "Credible announcements of measures, for example, can sometimes be enough to do this."

For many people, the economy remains a top issue, and that's where the CDU/CSU could actually score points, says Jung. The sticking point for him: "If the government doesn't manage to pull itself together, cooperate, and focus on the issue, then it won't be able to improve public opinion." The recent scandal over the election of constitutional judges last week left the CDU/CSU and the CDU/CSU coalition looking very divided.

Forsa researcher Matuschek believes that the rapid changes announced by Merz were unrealistic anyway – and people know it. "It was also somewhat presumptuous to announce that the mood would change within two months."