Elections in Poland and Romania: Europe's happiness on the brink

Two presidential elections in two key NATO and EU countries, in two frontline states in Russia-invaded Ukraine: The news from Romania and Poland shows how much the future of the European Union and its liberal forces hangs in the balance. And that they can still be successful.

In Romania, the pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan wins the presidential election by a clear margin against his right-wing, Russian-backed rival – after the latter was clearly ahead in the first round.

The RND newsletter from the government district. Every Thursday.

By subscribing to the newsletter I agree to the advertising agreement .

For the Balkan country, this represents a happy outcome to an election marathon that was scandalous in every respect and had shaken the political system.

The victorious Dan, the popular mayor of the capital Bucharest, also ran as an anti-establishment candidate. His primary task now is to restore calm and credibility to the political system.

Poland, on the other hand, is guaranteed no peace in the coming two weeks. The days leading up to the presidential runoff election in Warsaw on June 1 will mark the finale of the ongoing heated debate between liberals and national conservatives.

In two weeks, the runoff election will decide whether the most important eastern EU and NATO country will remain politically paralyzed between two warring camps – or whether the pro-European government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk can rule under a president from their party.

The result of the first round was closer than expected. Less than two percent separated the liberal Rafal Trzaskowski from his national conservative opponent Karol Nawrocki. Two candidates from the radical to extreme right combined for more than 20 percent, and three from the progressive camp garnered another 14 percent.

While left-liberal voters will most likely switch to Trzaskowski, it is completely unclear how those Poles who voted for the two right-libertarian and far-right candidates will decide. Many of them hate the national conservatives just as much as they hate the liberals and long for a radical way out of Poland's ongoing conflict.

Everyone expects an extremely close result, including a runoff election, and more nationalist and anti-immigrant tones from both candidates in the coming days. Germany's new border policy will also remain in focus.

On election night, Trzaskowski campaigned not in the capital, but in two small towns in eastern Poland. The message was clear: We haven't reached our goal yet. And we're increasingly moving into rural areas where we can still steal votes from our rivals.

A new start in German-Polish relations, as longed for by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, will only be possible after the election – if Trazskowski can maintain his lead to the finish.