Historically short summit meeting: NATO states struggle for agreement on defense spending

This year's NATO summit in The Hague will likely go down in history as one of the shortest in recent decades. After the celebratory dinner on Tuesday evening, the meeting will feature only a single two-and-a-half-hour working session. The primary goal is to keep Donald Trump happy, who, as president of the world's most powerful military power, will ultimately decide NATO's fate.

Will this succeed? After agreeing on the text for the planned final declaration, many allies expressed confidence that a major debacle could be avoided. The following key issues will play a major role – but some others will not. An overview:

How much do the states want to invest now?

Under the pressure of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and extreme pressure from US President Donald Trump, Germany and the other allies agreed on a new target for national defense spending over the weekend. The draft final declaration, adopted by all 32 allies, states: In light of profound threats and challenges to security, "the Allies commit to investing five percent of GDP annually in basic defense requirements and defense- and security-related spending no later than 2035."

At least 3.5 percent of GDP should be allocated to traditional military spending. In addition, expenditures for combating terrorism and military-usable infrastructure, for example, will be eligible. These could include investments in railway lines, tank-capable bridges, and expanded ports. Until recently, NATO's requirement was that at least two percent must be invested.

What about Article 5?

With Trump as president, does the United States still adhere to its Article 5 commitment to mutual assistance? That is, the agreement that an ally can count on the support of allies in the event of an attack, and that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all? Statements by the Republican have repeatedly raised doubts about this in the past. In return for the five percent pledge, the allies now expect that such a thing will not happen again.

The summit declaration is expected to read: "We, the Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Alliance, have met in The Hague to reaffirm our commitment to NATO—the strongest alliance in history—and to the transatlantic alliance." We remain united and determined to protect the one billion citizens of the Alliance.

What role does Ukraine still play at the summit?

At last year's NATO summit in Washington, Russia's war against Ukraine was clearly one of the top topics. This year, things will be different due to Trump's policy. The only official working session will focus on defense spending, in the absence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Unlike in previous years, no meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council was convened at the level of heads of state and government. The text of the summit declaration contains the vague sentence: "The Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to support Ukraine, whose security contributes to our own."

Zelenskyy can count a small success in the fact that it is to be stipulated in writing that NATO states can count military support for his country toward their defense spending. This has already been done recently, but Ukraine feared that this could change due to Trump's policies.

Are Trump's tariff decisions at the expense of allies violating NATO's founding treaty? Article 2 states that the parties "shall strive to eliminate differences in their international economic policies and to promote economic cooperation between any or all of the parties." The text of the summit declaration now at least states that the ongoing trade conflict should not have a negative impact on current military buildup efforts.

Could the summit still end in a debacle?

Many participants were initially concerned by public statements by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Under pressure from his left-wing coalition partners, he publicly announced that he did not consider the 5 percent target binding for his country.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte tried hard to prevent this from becoming a major issue for Trump. In a personal welcome to the Republican, he wrote that they had "persuaded everyone to sign the 5 percent pledge." Referring to the pressure Trump had exerted on this issue, he added: "You will achieve something no American president has achieved in decades."

Rutte was alluding to the fact that Trump's predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, had already advocated for Europeans to invest a significantly higher share of their gross domestic product in defense. However, their efforts had only limited success.

Hardly anyone in NATO wants to publicly speculate about a possible failure. Instead, long-term plans for the next summit are already underway. According to the text of the final declaration, the summit will be held in Turkey next year, and then in Albania in 2027.