Israel–Iran | Hit, but not overthrown

Mohammed Bagheri, Hussein Salami, and Esmail Qaani were the three most important pillars of the regime in Iran: Salami, as commander of the Revolutionary Guard, led troops to suppress protests; Bagheri, as Chief of General Staff, served as the liaison between the government and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Qaani was head of the Quds Force, the unit of the Revolutionary Guard that provided money and weapons to militant groups in the Middle East, thus playing a central role in the regional conflicts of recent years.

Now the three are dead, killed in what were likely targeted attacks by the Israeli army . And this is changing the dynamics of Iranian domestic politics. It took only a few hours for a video of a partially destroyed residential building in the Saadat Abad neighborhood to appear online. Similar images were also shown on state television, with the commentary that Israel was deliberately attacking residential areas and thus civilians.

Luxurious lifestyle of the elite in focus for years

But on social media, users primarily questioned why the country's military elite lives in expensive penthouse apartments while a large portion of the population suffers from inflation, excessively low wages, and dilapidated infrastructure. This is a sensitive topic in Iran: The high costs of the Quds Force's activities have been openly discussed for some time . The leadership's lifestyle has also been in the spotlight for years. In April, President Masoud Peseschkian was forced to fire one of his deputies after photos of a luxury cruise to Antarctica circulated.

However, there were no major consequences: Thanks largely to the three commanders' well-connected networks, the regime seemed to be firmly in control despite its enormous unpopularity, as far as one can tell. Journalistic work in Iran is extremely difficult, especially in rural areas.

The reactions one receives from the population in the West almost inevitably come from people who have access to the internet, know how to circumvent the blocks, and are brave enough to write down their opinions, despite the risk of arrest. However, as the results of the presidential elections of recent years show, the regime's support base is primarily outside the major cities. However, it is also there that the brunt of the problems is borne: water shortages, severe air pollution, and poverty.

Iranian regime will not fall

No sooner had Israel's military launched the first wave of attacks than the first people in the West began talking about the end of the Islamic Republic, about "regime change." But unlike in Syria, for example, the Iranian system of government is complex and geared toward ensuring the continued existence of the Islamic Republic even if a large part of the leadership is eliminated.

"I don't get the impression that many people really want to change everything," Nasrin, a sociologist living in Iran, writes via messenger: "More freedom, more transparency. We need leadership that focuses on people's problems. For a complete regime change, we would first need a social dialogue."

Propaganda with Artificial Intelligence

Iranian society is composed of a multitude of religious and ethnic groups; especially in regions predominantly inhabited by Kurds or Arabs, militant groups seeking secession from Iran have existed for years. The terrorist militia "Islamic State" is also active in Iran: In June 2017, IS carried out attacks on the parliament and the mausoleum of revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini.

The regime itself is currently doing what it always does: Ayatollah Khamenei is proclaiming belligerent rhetoric, and state television is broadcasting images of protests against Israel, of destroyed residential buildings, and burning oil facilities. Yet there are no signs that this is actually uniting people behind the regime. However, the state media has a reputation for manipulating images through skillful camerawork; recently, artificial intelligence has also been used as a propaganda tool. The Iranian government has invested $115 million in AI development to date, paid for from the Quds Force's budget.