Migration route English Channel | Great Britain and France: Agreed on deterrence

Emmanuel Macron's state visit to the UK ended successfully for Keir Starmer. The two countries agreed on a migration deal that aims to reduce boat crossings across the English Channel . This was the prime minister's main goal for the French president's visit – Starmer hopes it will help him score points domestically.

At a press conference late Thursday afternoon, which concluded Macron's three-day visit, Starmer spoke of a "groundbreaking repatriation pilot project." It operates on the "one out, one in" principle, meaning that migrants arriving in Britain by boat are to be "immediately returned to France." In return, Britain will accept one refugee via a regular and safe asylum route for every person deported. The agreement is primarily intended as a deterrent: the threat of return to France is intended to convince refugees that any attempt to reach Britain irregularly "is futile," as Starmer said. The pilot project—there is talk of initially 50 deportations per week—is scheduled to begin in the coming weeks.

France would actually prefer a Europe-wide migration agreement. Skepticism also prevails in Southern Europe, where people fear that migrants returned to France will apply for asylum in the countries where they first set foot on EU soil —such as Greece, Italy, or Spain. Nevertheless, Macron has agreed to try out the bilateral deal.

The number of migrants arriving in the UK by boat has increased significantly over the past five years. This is due, among other things, to the fact that other migration routes, such as the Channel Tunnel, are more closely monitored. The number of legal asylum routes to the UK is also very limited. In 2024, around 37,000 people came to the UK via the English Channel; in the first six months of 2025, the authorities counted around 21,000 boat migrants. The rising right-wing party Reform UK has declared immigration a major crisis and is capitalizing on it politically. Starmer hopes to halt its advance with a tough migration policy.

The Prime Minister will be relieved that the deal was finally struck. It's a rare victory for the politician, who is struggling with serious domestic problems. His austerity measures have recently met with fierce resistance. He has been forced to make several U-turns and has lost authority. Since his election victory a year ago, the Labour Party has plummeted in the polls, and Starmer is also near the bottom of the popularity rankings. Now, at least, he can say that he has made progress on one of his central goals – reducing irregular migration.

Another question, however, is whether the plan will work. The key factor is how many people are returned, said Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University. "If a majority of people are returned to France, people would be more likely to be aware of this and assume it could happen to them too," Sumption told the BBC. She added that the reasons why someone wants to come to the UK—including family members already in the country—are unlikely to be changed by policy measures.

In addition to migration, Macron and Starmer also discussed security cooperation, particularly regarding Ukraine. They announced that the Coalition of the Willing—that is, those European countries participating in Ukraine's defense—will have a permanent headquarters in Paris. Furthermore, France and the United Kingdom have entered into a nuclear partnership : they will cooperate more closely on nuclear deterrence.