Peace Report 2025 | Peace Researchers for War Competence

Leading German peace and conflict researchers are clear that the future of security policy in Western industrialized countries will be one without NATO. And that it will be characterized by rearmament in the long term. The German government must also prepare for this, said Christopher Daase of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt am Main (Prif, Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research) on Monday at the presentation of the 2025 Peace Report.

The analysis of military conflicts and threats, as well as ways to resolve and defuse them, is presented annually by Germany's five largest research institutions. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, at the latest, the representatives of these institutes have agreed that the European Union must rearm, particularly to prevent suspected further Russian aggression. Daase emphasized on Monday that "capability gaps" must be closed. Therefore, the researchers advocated the "temporary assumption of debt at the national and European level" for joint EU missions and projects within the framework of the "Permanent Structured Cooperation" (PESCO).

For "defense integration," Daase stated, "the consent of society to increase national defense spending must be continually won." However, security cannot be achieved solely through "armament, deterrence through defense capability," Daase acknowledged. One possible approach, as during the Cold War, is to combine rearmament with "offers for arms control negotiations." In the long term, "there will be no lasting security without peace." European policy must not "prevent the preparation of a future peace order," warned the Prif expert. "The medium-term goal must be peaceful coexistence with the mutual recognition of security interests."

However, given the political developments in the US, the researchers currently consider coordinated rearmament of the EU and further arms deliveries to Ukraine to be a priority. With an "increasingly nationalistic" US government and in view of "territorial claims and threats against allies," NATO has "no future." The US is now "another factor of uncertainty." Therefore, the "transatlantic partnership as we knew it is over." Germany and Europe are "directly threatened by the authoritarian state restructuring in the US." However, Europe must "become capable of defending itself without the US, perhaps even against it."

Ursula Schröder, Scientific Director of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH), emphasized: "What we are seeing so far is not a strengthening of European defense capabilities, but rather rearmament at the national level."

The researchers are not fundamentally opposed to the planned deployment of long-range US medium-range weapons in Germany starting next year, which is still planned under the Joe Biden administration. Daase stated that this plan would likely trigger a new peace movement and "massive protests." Meanwhile, Ursula Schröder cautioned that the deployment might not even happen under Donald Trump's administration. In the context of negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, the US administration could "accommodate Russian security interests" and refrain from the deployment.

Given the Russian threat, NATO is currently essential. But Europe must be able to defend itself without the US, perhaps even against it.

Christopher Daase Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research (PRIF)

At the same time, the researchers clearly oppose further deliveries of any military equipment to Israel. A halt to all exports of weapons and material usable for military purposes is "more urgent than ever," because Israel has "blatantly" violated international humanitarian law in Gaza and the West Bank and exceeded the limits of "legitimate self-defense," Daase explained.

German policy toward Israel must be governed by the principle that "international law takes precedence over reasons of state," the report states. This rules out "a state visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Germany until further notice." If Netanyahu were to visit Berlin, the Federal Republic would be obligated to arrest him and extradite him to the International Criminal Court (ICC). The ICC had issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on suspicion of having instigated serious war crimes.

Furthermore, Germany should advocate for the recognition of a Palestinian state "in the medium term," the researchers recommend. A lasting solution to the "Palestine conflict" "in no way restricts Israel's right to a Jewish state within secure borders," Daase emphasized.

In response to questions, Claudia Baumgart-Ochse of the Prif emphasized that the decisive factor in dealing with Israel at the moment is not terminology like genocide, but rather that the EU and, above all, the German government take action. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) must follow up his recent critical words with action. The German government must join the majority in the EU calling for a suspension of the EU Association Agreement with Israel, Baumgart-Ochse said. Furthermore, the German government must "massively support" peace initiatives such as the Egyptian plan for the reconstruction of Gaza.

The first chapter of the report is dedicated to the "forgotten" war in Sudan. The researchers recommend that the German government pay more attention to conflicts like this "with high escalation potential and serious humanitarian consequences," as they also threaten Germany's security. The Federal Republic must increase humanitarian aid and strengthen civil society forces in Sudan.

The researchers are highly critical of the CDU-SPD coalition's tightened asylum policy. They advocate for increased quotas for the admission of those particularly in need of protection from crisis regions, including in Germany. The experts particularly reject the cabinet's proposed suspension of family reunification for those granted subsidiary protection. Daase argues that there is demonstrably "no more effective prevention of extremism than family integration."

The Peace Report is published by the Prif and the IFSH, the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), and the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) at the University of Duisburg-Essen. It has been published since 1987.