Poland | Donald Tusk survives vote of confidence

Prime Minister Donald Tusk submitted a vote of confidence to the Sejm on Wednesday. He decided to take this step after the painful defeat in the presidential elections on June 1st placed the government under enormous political pressure. On Wednesday, a combative Tusk declared in the Sejm that he knew the word "defeat," but not "capitulation." The coalition was holding together and would govern resolutely until autumn 2027, the head of government stated. In the end, 243 MPs expressed their confidence in Tusk, while 210 voted against the prime minister.

Immediately after Karol Nawrocki's victory, Jarosław Kaczyński had struck a different chord: the Tusk government was finished, had to resign, and make way for a caretaker government that would pave the way for new elections. Since the presidential election had not changed the composition of parliament, it was a theatrical roar, as if parts of the government were now defecting to the opposition.

Nawrocki's election changes the political balance of power

Nawrocki's election as president – ​​he will take office on August 6 – has noticeably changed Poland's political landscape, even if the existing balance of power remains largely unchanged: out of almost 21 million votes cast, just 370,000 made the small but decisive difference. Nawrocki's victory gives the national-conservative opposition the upper hand again ; they now hope to be able to set the country's political agenda despite the unfavorable majority in parliament. This is also why they are calling for the Tusk government to resign. Nawrocki echoes this sentiment, calling Tusk the "worst prime minister since 1989," i.e., since Tadeusz Mazowiecki.

The electoral victory of the broad coalition led by Tusk in the parliamentary elections in autumn 2023 was the result of unflagging resistance to the political impositions of the Kaczyński party. The road of public protest undoubtedly belonged to the democratic opposition. The blue of the EU flag, the open umbrellas of women dressed in black, and the demonstrations in defense of the constitution characterized the protests until 2019. Then, in autumn 2020, the women's protests – the largest protest movement in Poland since 1990. Finally, the massive demonstrations in June and October 2023 in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, in which a broad political alliance ranging from moderate conservatives to alternative leftists – led by Tusk in the liberal center – successfully faced the voters' vote.

Support from anti-Kaczyński protests exhausted

The national conservatives retained the presidency with Andrzej Duda, but the political initiative clearly belonged to the broadly based government camp. The momentum was intended to be used to reclaim the presidency in spring 2025; the politician Kaczyński's hour had already struck. Things turned out differently. Now it is clear that the powerful support from the multifaceted protest movement against the Kaczyński government has been exhausted . There is unlikely to be any new resistance against the newly elected president. Protests in Poland are against government policies, less often against the president.

To justify the vote of confidence, Tusk listed the government's previous successes, citing increased military spending and effective measures to combat migration as his primary goals, which highlights the dilemma. The grand promise of quickly restoring the undermined rule of law and enforcing suppressed women's rights has not been fulfilled, with repeated reference to the presidential office and its veto power.

Tusk will restructure his government

The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for autumn 2027. The Kaczyński opposition, now demanding new elections, argues that the Tusk government can no longer implement its central goals. In fact, the government camp now resembles a stronghold surrounded by hostile waters, rather than a central bridgehead designed to undermine Kaczyński's party. In addition to the national conservatives and nationalists, the few MPs from the left-wing Razem party also voted against Tusk. Their MP, Adrian Zandberg, said Tusk likes to lash out at the national conservatives to gloss over government failures. Razem members also join in the chorus, saying, "Poland deserves more."

According to a recent poll, a majority doubts whether the coalition government under Tusk will last until autumn 2027. The greatest pressure will come from the weakening conservative flank of the governing coalition. This is another reason why Tusk is urging haste: "Two and a half years of full mobilization await us." Meanwhile, the conservatives in the government are demanding a more profound government reshuffle, which Tusk has promised for July. The future of the government will likely only be decided in the coming weeks.