Portugal: Parliamentary elections: Conservatives are the strongest force according to forecasts

In Portugal, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro 's conservative Aliança Democrática (AD) coalition has won the early parliamentary elections, according to media forecasts. According to a survey by state broadcaster RTP, AD is ahead of the opposition Socialist Party (PS) with 28 to 34 percent of the vote, but, as in 2024, it falls short of an absolute majority of 116 parliamentary seats.

The Socialists are experiencing losses and, according to the forecast based on post-election polls, are expected to receive around 25 percent. They are closely followed by the right-wing populist Chega, which could improve from 18 to 20 to 24 percent. Other media outlets published similar figures, some even placing Chega on par with or slightly ahead of the Socialists.

If the vote count confirms the forecasts, this election result threatens the holiday destination with another unstable minority government. Montenegro had recently continued to rule out cooperation with the right-wing populist Chega party.

This was already the third snap election since 2022. This new vote was necessary because Montenegro had decisively lost a vote of no confidence he had initiated in March . The 52-year-old lawyer had been harassed by the opposition due to shady dealings by a family business. Everything now indicates that the affair has not harmed him. The first meaningful official results are expected around midnight (CEST).

Since Montenegro's defeat in the Lisbon Assembly, Portugal has only had a caretaker government with limited powers. Several important projects have therefore been put on hold until a new government is formed. Among them is the privatization of the airline TAP, which Lufthansa, among others, is interested in.

While AD's victory promises continuity, talks on forming a new government are likely to take some time, as they did in 2024. For Montenegro to be nominated again by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as his candidate for the post of prime minister, several parties, including the Socialists, must pledge that they will not vote against Montenegro in the parliamentary vote. The only real coalition partner likely to be considered for AD is the liberal Iniciativa Liberal, which came in fourth—but by a wide margin.

The allegations against Montenegro concern the company Spinumviva, which the trained lawyer founded in 2021. The consulting firm allegedly profited from the prime minister's position to sign contracts with private companies. The opposition spoke of conflicts of interest. Even though voters apparently largely ignored the affair and the election campaign focused primarily on issues such as immigration and crime, this affair is likely far from over for Montenegro. It can be assumed that the left-wing opposition will continue to insist on a parliamentary commission of inquiry. Following an anonymous complaint, the public prosecutor's office is also investigating the case.