The rapid rise of right-wing populists in Portugal is apparently unstoppable.

A record-breaking shift to the right overshadows the victory of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's conservatives in Portugal's early parliamentary elections. Just six years after its founding, the right-wing populist party Chega (Enough) has become the second-strongest force in Lisbon's "Assembleia da República." Portuguese media are calling it a "historic result," a "disaster," and "uncertainty." The TV station CMTV sees an "existential threat" to the traditional parties, while the newspaper "El País" from neighboring Spain even calls it a "revolution."

Montenegro's Aliança Democrática (AD) received just under 33 percent of the vote in its third general election since 2022 – about four points more than in the last election in March 2024. However, the focus is on Chega, which won at least 58 of the 230 parliamentary seats with over 22.5 percent of the vote.

The Socialists (PS), who governed with an absolute majority just over a year ago, also received 58 seats, with slightly more votes than Chega. However, the four seats that are still to be allocated after the foreign votes are counted traditionally go mostly to the right-wing populists.

"We are making history. From now on, nothing will be the same in Portugal," shouted Chega leader André Ventura – dubbed "Hurricane" by some media – to the deafening cheers of his supporters. They have "killed the two-party system that has ruled for 50 years" – and will soon form the government, promised the 42-year-old law professor, who repeatedly incites hatred against minorities. After all, Chega has increased its support since 2019 from 1.3 percent to seven percent, then to 18 percent, and now to over 22.5 percent.

One man's joy is another man's sorrow: Following his party's worst result since 1987, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced late in the evening that he would resign from the presidency. He had only held it since the beginning of 2024, following the resignation of then-current Prime Minister António Costa.

There is more optimism at the AD. But they once again missed the absolute majority. Montenegro had recently continued to rule out cooperation with the right-wing populists. The firewall on the Tagus River is just as stable as in Germany. Unlike in Germany, however, a coalition between the two traditional parties close to the center is considered out of the question. The holiday destination is therefore once again threatened by an unstable minority government.

The third parliamentary election since 2022 was necessary because Montenegro had decisively lost a vote of no confidence he had initiated in March. The 52-year-old lawyer had been cornered by the opposition due to shady dealings by a family business. All indications now are that the affair has done little damage to him.

But the country probably does: Since Montenegro's parliamentary failure, Portugal has only had a caretaker government with limited powers. Several important projects are on hold. Among them is the privatization of the airline TAP, in which Lufthansa is also interested.

While AD's victory promises continuity, the formation of the new government is likely to take some time, as it did in 2024. To be nominated again by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as his candidate for prime minister, Montenegro must receive the support of several parties, including the Socialists. The only possible coalition partner is the liberal Iniciativa Liberal, which, however, finished fourth by a wide margin.

The allegations against Montenegro concern the company Spinumviva, founded in 2021. The consulting firm allegedly profited from the prime minister's position to sign contracts with private companies. The opposition spoke of conflicts of interest.

Even though voters apparently were largely indifferent to the affair, and issues such as immigration and crime were the main focus of the election campaign, this affair is far from over for Montenegro. It can be assumed that the left-wing opposition will continue to insist on a parliamentary commission of inquiry. Following an anonymous complaint, the public prosecutor's office is also investigating the case.