World ranking is decisive: Due to the Portugal defeat, the German national team is threatened with a tough draw at the World Cup

• In the video: After defeat against Portugal: Nagelsmann counters reporter's question pompously – the reporter reacts meekly

The defeat against Portugal has a negative impact on Julian Nagelsmann's ambitious World Cup plans. The national team's chances of securing a spot in the top pot for the group draw for the tournament in America in summer 2026 have plummeted. Even in the World Cup preliminary round, tough matches against Argentina, Spain, and France are looming.

The 2-1 defeat against Portugal in the Nations League semifinal saw the German national team drop 11.71 points in the FIFA World Rankings, which determine the seeding. The gap to Italy, currently in ninth place, would increase to more than 20 points if the German national team wins the World Cup qualifier in Norway on Friday.

To qualify for the top pot, Germany must move up at least one place and reach ninth in the world rankings after the conclusion of World Cup qualifying in November. However, as things stand, they can only earn just under 20 points from their six World Cup qualifiers against Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg. Furthermore, Croatia and Morocco, in eleventh and twelfth place in the FIFA rankings, are closing in on the German national team.

The Nations League third-place match against France or Spain on Sunday (3:00 p.m./RTL/DAZN) in Stuttgart therefore has an important sporting component. The prominence of the opponent in a match with around 15 points could mean another double-digit score for the complex FIFA rankings.

It would help the German national team if a better-placed team unexpectedly failed to qualify for the World Cup. If Germany lands in Pot 2 in the draw, Portugal, with Cristiano Ronaldo, would again be a possible early opponent in the World Cup group stage. An unpleasant clash with co-hosts Mexico in difficult climatic conditions is also possible.