The conservative coalition wins the elections in Portugal and the far right advances

Portuguese politics experienced a revolution this Sunday, altering the party model in place since 1974, following the fall of the dictatorship. The conservative AD coalition, led by Luís Montenegro, won the elections, but the big winner of the night was Chega leader André Ventura, who challenged the Socialist Party for second place and fell just 52,000 votes short of overtaking .

AD, with 32.7% of the vote, increased its seat count from 80 to 89, far from the "largest majority" its leader claimed during the campaign to comfortably govern in a Parliament that elects 230 seats. The Socialists, the biggest losers of the night with 23%, suffered a loss of more than 400,000 votes compared to the previous year and fell from 78 to 58 seats. Only in the 1985 and 1987 elections did they record a more serious defeat. Just after midnight, their leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, announced his resignation as Secretary General to accept responsibility for the results.

In his victory speech, Luís Montenegro emphasized that they had increased their lead over the Socialist Workers' Party (PS) tenfold (from 51,000 to over half a million votes) and repeatedly called for stability to govern for four years. "The people don't want another government or another prime minister. We demand that they let us govern," he declared. Without naming Spinumviva, the family business that caused the crisis leading to these elections, he suggested that the matter was resolved with Sunday's election announcement.

Voters neither penalized Montenegro for his family business nor Chega for the scandals involving some of his representatives in recent months. "The parties that caused instability have been rewarded," lamented Pedro Nuno Santos.

For much of the night, Chega led the PS, although it ultimately remained the third-largest party, tied for the number of seats. The 22% of the vote will allow it to increase its parliamentary group from 50 to 58 deputies. This would confirm the end of the two-party system that has distinguished Portuguese politics since the Carnation Revolution. "Today we settle accounts with history," Ventura proclaimed in his speech, addressing those "who have felt humiliated during these 50 years of regime." He also warned that "they haven't seen anything yet," in response to the Socialist leader's denunciation of Chega's "aggressiveness" in this campaign.

The combined total of left-wing forces (30%) is the most irrelevant in the history of the country's democracy. A fact Ventura boasted about: "Chega overcame Mário Soares's party, killed Álvaro Cunhal's party, and swept aside the Left Bloc." Unlike his intervention a year ago, this time he did not welcome a pact with AD. His ambition, with the new data, is no longer to be Montenegro's crutch, but to replace him. "We are almost at the point where we can govern," he said. "Nothing will remain the same in Portugal from today on," he emphasized.

The three right-wing parties improved their results, although not all of them met the expectations indicated by the polls. Liberal Initiative (IL), the fourth-largest party, went from eight to nine seats. With this result, its leader, Rui Rocha, who had offered to make a pact with AD during the campaign, suggested that they would opt to remain in opposition. "We will be true to ourselves, even if we move more slowly, but we will not be populists," he said.

On the left, only Livre (4%) celebrated a strong result, becoming the fifth-largest party and adding two seats to the four it already had. Rui Tavares' party overtook the historic Portuguese Communist Party (3%), which managed to retain three seats, and the Left Bloc, which was on the verge of being excluded from Parliament, having once had 19 seats and being the third-largest party between 2015 and 2022. At the last minute, it secured a seat for its coordinator, Mariana Mortágua , but has since lost three seats.

Inês Sousa Real, spokesperson for the People-Animals-Nature (PAN) party, also managed to retain her seat in the Assembly of the Republic. A deputy from an independent party originating in Madeira, Juntos Pelo Povo (JPP), which already caused a surprise in the regional elections by becoming the second largest party, overtaking the PS, is entering the Chamber for the first time.

The populism that's been gaining ground in many countries took longer to reach Portugal, but this Sunday demonstrated that Ventura's project has been able to successfully establish itself across the country in record time, considering its inception in 2019. The far-right's advance has been most intense in the south of the country, until now a territory held by the Socialist Party, which confirms the ease with which votes are transferred between the left and the far right. While Chega won in the Algarve in 2024, where he repeated his victory, this time he has also become the most voted party in the regions of Beja, Setúbal, and Portalegre.

Contrary to the theorists of electoral fatigue, the Portuguese voted more than in 2024: 64.3%, four points more (59.84%) than in March 2024. Nothing to do with the historic queues that formed in front of the polling stations 50 years ago to elect the deputies who would have to draft the Constitution, but back then the Portuguese voted freely for the first time after half a century of dictatorship and now they vote almost every year, at least since 2022. On this occasion, forced by the fall of the conservative coalition government AD due to the crisis opened by a question of political ethics of the Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, who kept the family business, Spinumviva, operating when he came to office.

The results, however, do not offer any indication of stable governance solutions. The vote count from abroad is still pending, with one and a half million Portuguese eligible to elect four representatives (two from the European constituency and two from the rest of the world). The results will be announced on May 28.

But Montenegro's victory does not hide the difficulties he will face in forming a government. It is not out of the question that the prime minister could face a similar ordeal to the one he experienced this year in the Assembly if he fails to form stable alliances. On more than one occasion, he has had to approve measures imposed by the opposition with which he disagreed, such as the elimination of tolls on some highways.

Chega's reinforcement may have altered André Ventura's strategy, which a year ago was pushing hard to reach an agreement with the prime minister. His excellent results may dissuade him from doing so now, and he may prefer to spend this term as leader of the opposition, a title he will claim since he considers Chega to be the second-largest force.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will convene the leaders of all political parties starting this Monday to discuss their preferences in an effort to achieve a stable government.