30% Tariff: What does it mean for your wallet and the country?

The threat of a 30% tariff from the United States has set off economic alarm bells in Mexico . Analysts and business organizations warn of the risk of a GDP contraction, a devaluation of the peso, and a devastating blow to key export industries.

The Mexican economy is on edge. U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose a blanket 30% tariff on all imports from Mexico has set off alarm bells in financial markets, business councils, and economic think tanks. Projections point to a grim scenario that could include an economic contraction, currency volatility, and a severe impact on the country's most important productive sectors.

The possibility of the Mexican economy entering a recession is one of the most serious concerns. Organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and analysts from financial institutions like Banco Base have warned that a tariff of this magnitude could lead to a contraction of Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The economic mechanism is straightforward: a 30% tariff drastically increases the price of Mexican products in the U.S. market, the main destination for Mexican exports. This price increase would lead to a drop in demand, which in turn would force Mexican companies to reduce their production, affecting employment and, consequently, slowing the country's overall economic growth.

Although the tariff would be general, certain sectors are particularly vulnerable due to their high export volume and integration with the U.S. economy.

This is perhaps the area of greatest risk. North American automotive supply chains are deeply integrated. Components and vehicles cross the border multiple times before reaching the final consumer. A disruptive tariff would not only affect plants in Mexico, but also those in the United States that rely on Mexican parts. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard has indicated that the measure could directly impact 12 million American families who consume cars assembled in Mexico.

These materials, crucial to the construction and manufacturing industries, have already been subject to previous tariffs under Chapter 99 of the tariff system. A new 30% levy would be an additional blow to a sector already under pressure. The Mexican Chamber of the Construction Industry (CMIC) has expressed concern about the rising prices of these vital inputs.

Mexican agriculture, which exports billions of dollars' worth of products such as avocados, tomatoes, and berries, would also face a critical scenario. Unlike manufactured goods, perishable products cannot be stored while awaiting the resolution of trade disputes, which could lead to massive losses for Mexican producers.

Historically, Trump's tariff threats have triggered episodes of high volatility and depreciation of the Mexican peso. Financial markets react negatively to uncertainty, and a measure of this magnitude would put considerable pressure on the exchange rate, resulting in higher prices for imported goods and inflationary pressures.

Beyond the immediate reaction, the main long-term damage is the erosion of trust. Uncertainty about trade rules hinders Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and discourages companies from pursuing expansion plans in Mexico. The mere threat, even if not fully realized, acts as an economic weapon that generates volatility and forces companies to be more cautious, impacting the economy before a single dollar in tariffs is levied.

The country's main business organizations have expressed their deep concern. The Business Coordinating Council (CCE) and the Employers' Confederation of the Mexican Republic (COPARMEX) have issued an urgent call for negotiations to avoid a trade conflict. The seriousness of the situation was evident in the emergency meeting held between Francisco Cervantes, president of the CCE, and the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, to coordinate a joint strategy between the government and the private sector.