Airbus estimates it will double its global fleet to 50,000 aircraft by 2044.

Airbus estimates that by 2044 there will be around 49,210 commercial aircraft —both passenger and cargo—in service worldwide, almost doubling the 24,730 operating at the end of 2024, according to the Airbus Global Market Forecast 2025, released Thursday.

Thus, the European manufacturer has estimated that 34,420 new aircraft will have to be delivered over the next 20 years , of which around 44% (18,830) will be used to replace previous generation models that are less fuel-efficient.

Specifically, the company anticipates that 34,250 single-aisle aircraft and 9,170 wide-body aircraft will need to enter service. According to the company, although there are short-term uncertainties, it is confident in significant growth in air traffic demand in the coming years due to the increase in global GDP (+2.5%) and the urban population by approximately 1.2 billion, as well as the increase of approximately 1.5 billion in the global middle class, the demographic group most likely to fly.

In this context, the growth already being recorded in some regions of the planet is noteworthy. For example, India is the country with the fastest growth in air traffic, achieving increases of 8.9% in domestic traffic and 5.8% to countries in the Middle East. Emerging Asia follows China (up 8.5%) and the Middle East with emerging Asia (up 5.3%).

However, in the more mature markets, the greatest growth is on routes between Western Europe and the Middle East, Central Europe, emerging Asia, and between the Middle East and the United States, with a rate of 3.8%.

The increase in air and fleet demand will bring with it the need to recruit new pilots, technicians, and cabin crew, creating new career paths across the aviation ecosystem. Airbus believes there will be "enormous opportunities" in aircraft maintenance and efficient operations as part of the industry's drive for sustainability, but it will also require a well-managed supply chain "from start to finish."

However, these estimates are based on the absence of drastic changes in global geopolitics . These estimates already include the potential impact of current tariffs, which the Fed believes will have a "limited" impact and does not affect its forecasts. However, it warns that a scenario of tariff escalation to "punitive" levels could require a revision of the current figures.