Between war and recession: Mexico facing global complexity

Since June 13, 2025, Israel and Iran have been engaged in an exchange of missile and drone attacks. On June 21, the United States took an even more serious step: it launched a series of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—with the stated mission of nullifying Iran's ability to manufacture an atomic bomb. This turning point has burdened that region with the palpable threat of further escalation, with Iran vowing counterattacks and actors like the Houthis in Yemen already intensifying their attacks on Israeli positions in solidarity.

Alongside this conflagration in the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, a conflict that has redrawn alliances and geostrategic tensions, while other wars are raging in places like Yemen. It can be argued that the planet is trapped in a dynamic of systemic violence where each attack generates a chain reaction, and the boundaries of conflict extend beyond the military to the political, economic, and symbolic.

For Mexico, the impact is far from remote. First, global uncertainty is generating market turmoil: oil and gas prices are skyrocketing, making energy imports more expensive for an economy already threatened by recession. Furthermore, Mexico is experiencing a critical period: internal violence continues unabated, organized crime permeates large sectors, and the political opposition lacks effective power, weakening the state's response to any external shock.

Faced with the magnitude of these and other challenges, globalization has demonstrated a double standard: it promises interdependence and progress, but in its economic logic, it simultaneously amplifies the inequalities and vulnerability of hundreds of millions of people.

What should the Mexican state do in this complex situation? First, strengthen economic and strategic diplomacy: Mexico must do everything within its power to strengthen the United Nations, renew the goal of ensuring that no conflict is ever again resolved through violent means, and rekindle the global desire for a world at peace, with mutual respect and cordiality among nations.

Second, diversify the energy and agricultural matrix, reducing exposure to oil shocks, as well as reversing the critical dependence on food, particularly grains. Boosting renewable energy and domestic technology would be a structural response that could open up new sources of employment and local development.

Third, strengthen the rule of law and social cohesion. Internal violence weakens national positions; only a robust, reliable democracy with citizen participation can provide resilience to adverse global events and attract large-scale investment and international cooperation projects.

Fourth, invest rapidly in scientific and technological innovation. A world in conflict, particularly due to the dominance of science and technology, demands more powerful universities, applied research, and digital connectivity. Mexico could prioritize strategic sectors, such as health and biotechnology, and form cooperation networks with countries seeking to diversify their supply chains outside the conflict zone.

Fifth, guarantee economic and social inclusion. Comprehensive development requires the State's ability to guarantee access to decent work and universal human rights. This requires territorial investment, that is, policies that allow for the construction of a new and dynamic internal market, because if the global market is threatened, development rooted in the social base acts as an internal shield.

In essence, global uncertainty acts as an accelerator: those who don't adapt will fall behind. Mexico has the opportunity to define a strategy for its own development, as a proactive player in the international arena. A country that builds diplomatic bridges, values ​​its economic sovereignty, strengthens its internal democracy, and invests in science and education will be better positioned to withstand, take advantage of, and contribute to the complex situation that challenges us like never before in the last five decades.