Dubai chocolate triggers global crisis: Why is there a pistachio shortage and skyrocketing prices in Mexico?

The Dubai Chocolate craze, which went viral on TikTok , has sparked an unexpected global crisis: a pistachio shortage and a drastic increase in prices. We'll tell you what's behind this craze and how to get your hands on (or not) this coveted treat in Mexico.

It all started relatively modestly in 2021, when Dubai-based artisanal chocolate maker Fix Dessert Chocolatier launched a bar called "Can't Get Knafeh of It." Its composition: a milk chocolate base filled with a creamy pistachio paste and crunchy pieces of kataifi (also known as kunafa), a crushed filo pastry typical of the Middle East.

Although it was a local success, the real explosion occurred in late 2023. A TikTok video by influencer Maria Vehera, demonstrating the bar with an ASMR (Autonomous Sensory Meridian Response) approach that highlighted its signature crunch, went viral, racking up over 120 million views. Overnight, Dubai Chocolate became a global obsession.

Demand soared to unprecedented levels. Major international brands such as Lindt and Läderach quickly launched their own versions to capitalize on the trend, as did retail chains like Lidl in Europe. The rush was such that some stores were forced to ration these tablets per customer due to the extremely high demand and limited supply.

The star ingredient of this viral chocolate, the pistachio, quickly became the epicenter of a crisis. Suppliers and nut merchants began to speak of a "pistachio panic," reporting that the market was "basically exhausted."

The figures are overwhelming: in approximately one year, the international price of pistachio kernels (the shelled kernel used in baking) increased by nearly 35%, going from about $7.65 US dollars per pound to $10.30 US dollars.

But is Dubai Chocolate the only culprit? The answer is complex. While the massive demand generated by the viral trend was a key factor, as chocolatiers aggressively bought up all available kernels, the market was already facing pre-existing strains.

A disappointing harvest in the 2023/2024 season in the United States, the world's leading pistachio exporter, had reduced the available supply. Ironically, that harvest was of very high quality, which meant that more (more expensive) whole and in-shell pistachios were sold, leaving fewer lower-grade kernels, just what the processing and baking industry needs.

Some experts even argue that the shortage was already a reality due to natural pistachio harvest cycles (known as vecería or alternancia) and other logistical factors, and that the chocolate rush simply coincided with or exacerbated an existing problem. Darren Cheshire, a UK-based nut expert, went so far as to call the direct connection "a red herring."

“The pistachio world is basically sold out right now… [chocolatiers] are buying all the kernels they can get… that leaves the rest of the world short” – Giles Hacking, nut trader.

The repercussions of this perfect storm are felt throughout the global supply chain:

* Affected Producers:

* United States (California): The world's largest producer saw its supply fall by up to 20% in the twelve months leading up to February 2025. The situation has led some farmers to replace crops such as almond trees with pistachios, although these new trees will take years to produce.

* Iran: As the second-largest producer, it has capitalized on the situation. Its pistachio exports to the United Arab Emirates (the destination for the original chocolate) increased by a staggering 40% in just six months (between September 2024 and March 2025).

* Türkiye: Another major producer, it is also affected by market pressure.

* Chocolate Industry: From giants like Lindt to small artisans, all face difficulties in obtaining not only pistachios, but also kataifi, at reasonable prices, forcing some to reformulate products or delay launches.

* Other Sectors: The shortage and rising prices of pistachios are also affecting other industries that use them as a key ingredient, such as ice cream parlors, snack manufacturers, and producers of the traditional sweet baklava.

Although Fix Dessert Chocolatier's original Dubai Chocolate remains exclusive to the United Arab Emirates, the craze has reached Mexico. Versions, replicas, and imitations have appeared on the domestic market.

Finding it, however, is neither easy nor cheap. You can search for it in:

* Online platforms: Sites like Mercado Libre and Amazon Mexico offer a variety of Dubai-style bars, usually imported or made by local vendors.

* Artisanal pastries and chocolate shops: Some local businesses have begun producing their own versions.

* Specialty stores: Imported or gourmet candy stores may have it in stock.

(Include relevant image or video here: Screenshots of prices in Mexican online stores or TikToks of Mexicans trying/looking for chocolate)

Prepare for the impact on your wallet. Prices in Mexico directly reflect the global pistachio crisis and high demand. They vary considerably depending on the size, brand, and seller, but it's not uncommon to find bars that exceed $500 or $600 Mexican pesos. One Mexican TikToker documented paying $550 pesos for a bar.

Although Mexico isn't a significant pistachio producer globally, its dependence on imports means global shortages and high prices directly affect both consumers seeking the viral chocolate and the local baking industry that uses this nut. Meanwhile, the trend remains strong on TikTok Mexico, fueling curiosity and demand.

The Dubai Chocolate case and the pistachio crisis leave several important lessons on the table:

* The immense power of social media: A viral TikTok video was able to drastically alter global demand for a product and, by extension, its raw materials, demonstrating the influence of these platforms on supply chains.

* Logistical fragility: This highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains to abrupt and massive changes in consumption patterns, especially when they coincide with pre-existing supply problems.

* The need for adaptation: Highlights the importance for producers, exporters, and companies to constantly monitor digital trends and develop more flexible and resilient logistics chains to be able to react quickly to viral phenomena.

Conclusion:

The Dubai Chocolate Fever is a fascinating and vivid example of how a phenomenon born in the digital world can trigger very real and tangible economic consequences on a global scale. As the pistachio industry tries to adapt to this new reality of scarcity and high prices, consumers in Mexico and around the world are faced with the dilemma: Is it worth the high price to succumb to the temptation of the viral sweet of the moment? The answer, for now, seems as crunchy and uncertain as the immediate future of the pistachio market.

Share your thoughts in the comments: Have you tried Dubai Chocolate yet? Would you pay that price?

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