El Prat begins a race against time to compete with European hubs.
Support for the Barcelona Airport expansion agreement, which the Generalitat (Catalan Government) and Aena formalized on Tuesday, is practically unanimous across the economic, social, and aviation sectors. But there is also a consensus that the measure comes somewhat late at a time of concentrated airport activity in major European hubs , especially long-haul activity, the activity that the expansion aims for.
If everything goes according to plan and the European Commission gives the project the green light, the works would not be completed until 2033 at the earliest. And by then, industry sources explain, the gap with competing airports could widen even further. Thus begins a race against time to try to attract airlines with intercontinental routes while the infrastructure is being prepared.
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The league of major airport hubs in Europe is narrow. Xavier Fageda, a professor at the UB School of Economics, cites six, all linked to the base of a powerful airline and a holding company that offers both short- and medium-haul and long-haul flights. These are Heathrow in London, dominated by British Airways, and Barajas Airport with Iberia. In both cases, the hub is supported by the Anglo-Spanish group IAG, which also owns Vueling and Level. Also Frankfurt and Munich with Lufthansa. Finally, he highlights Amsterdam and Charles de Gaulle in Paris, with the Air France-KLM group behind them. All of them have significant market shares in intercontinental flights.
Can El Prat become a hub of this nature? “It’s difficult,” Fageda believes, “because this depends on a major network airline wanting to set up shop in Barcelona; and the hub network in Europe is already quite established.” This is due to historical factors, with flag carriers typically establishing their bases in state capitals or major economic centers, such as Germany. Barcelona has not had that advantage.
The extension will create the conditions for equal competition on the routes.Given these conditions, many eyes are focused on the role of Level—a low-cost long-haul airline—and Vueling as a major operator of short- and medium-haul flights to fuel intercontinental travel. The professor at the UB School of Economics sees a constraint here. “Level and Vueling belong to the same group as Iberia; it wouldn't make much sense for the same holding company to compete in Madrid and Barcelona,” he points out.
This doesn't mean, Fageda continues, that El Prat Airport is poorly positioned and lacks growth potential. "On the contrary," he emphasizes. "Both in terms of passenger traffic and connections, it is among the top airports in Europe." According to data from the consulting firm Cirium, Barcelona Airport is the sixth with the most connections in Europe (see chart), although it includes short-, medium-, and long-haul flights without specifying the percentage of each. It is also among the airports with the highest weekly flight volume. Gaining more intercontinental connections, therefore, is possible, although it won't reach the level of the major benchmarks, Fageda concludes.
Despite this, those consulted agree that action is needed at El Prat Airport to ensure it doesn't fall behind. The expansion is a "strategic" measure to ensure its competitive position compared to major European airports, notes Pere Suau-Sanchez, professor at the UOC. The expansion, he continues, "does not guarantee success" in achieving the objectives pursued, but it creates the conditions to compete on equal terms for future routes and traffic.
First, the professor points out, it would allow Vueling to consolidate its already excellent intra-European connectivity, strengthening its growth potential. Second, it would allow for increased operational capacity in peak-demand time slots to accommodate more wide-body aircraft, essential for long-haul routes, "where El Prat currently faces its main limitation." And finally, the new satellite terminal and the updated infrastructure would improve the quality of the passenger experience, "an increasingly decisive factor in competing with other airports," Suau-Sanchez believes.
Experts and economic agents see the need for a large airline to create a long-haul base.Time, in any case, is running out because major competitors also have significant improvement plans underway. The most recent example is Madrid, with the expansion of Barajas Airport in full swing. But there's more. David Samu, partner in charge of the Strategy and Operations practice at EY Parthenon, cites the intense renovation schedule looming at key European hubs . "In most cases, they will generate significant capacity increases prior to the completion of the works in Barcelona," says Samu. He mentions the third runway at Heathrow planned for 2030, Terminal 3 in Frankfurt, operational in 2026, and the terminal upgrades at Amsterdam Schiphol in 2029.
In this regard, Miquel Martí, vice president of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, a member institution of the Air Route Development Committee, advocates building the basic structure now to attract intercontinental routes and close agreements with airlines. This way, once the expansion becomes a reality and enters into service, the leap will be much faster.
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