Experts anticipate that US tariffs will be difficult to negotiate
Faced with constant tariff threats against Mexico by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. Analysts and businessmen have identified him as a real 'bully' . Faced with which, They believe that it is better for Mexico to negotiate with the US government rather than impose reprisals.
"Trump is used to negotiating, he is a 'bully' and we have to look for people who know him well, so that they can negotiate with him," said Sergio Ley, who was Mexico's ambassador to China from 2001 to 2007.
The retired diplomat said that while this impacts global trade rules and the World Trade Organization (WTO), "Trump will be in office for four years, he will make many mistakes and he will not be able to be re-elected."
Although there are business organizations that are calling for retaliation against the US if that country imposes tariffs on Mexican products, it is necessary to prepare to negotiate and take advantage of the experience of the negotiating team of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC), Ley explained.
"There is a deeper issue than tariffs. It is not in Mexico's interest to impose tariffs one after another, because it would affect the domestic economy of both countries," said Jorge Eduardo García Alanís, partner of Ibarra and Gaalanis.
Although Trump wants to increase production in the United States by applying tariffs, "to date I do not know of a country that applies the economic theory of self-sufficiency, that can produce everything it needs. It is almost impossible for a country to produce inputs and products to fully supply itself," he said.
- García Alanís added that Trump's intention is to solve the problem of drug trafficking and illegal immigration.
If Mexico and the United States start a tariff war, "the effect will be inflationary and uncontrolled. My opinion on this is to negotiate with the premise of protecting the domestic economy at all costs." The expert rejected the idea that the World Trade Organization (WTO) could disappear in the face of Trump's tariff threats. "It is very difficult for the WTO to weaken, because it is the organization that has been evolving with the intention of creating economic zones and blocks, and to regulate the transit of goods and capital in the world."
The Vice President of Industrial Development of the Metal-Mechanical sector of the National Chamber of the Transformation Industry (Canacintra), Juan Manuel Chaparro Romero, said that Trump's current and future tariff threats must be considered, as they may not only involve tariffs, but extend to curbing natural gas sales to Mexico.
"Mexico must prepare itself in all aspects, economic, political, security, migration and social, for any eventuality," he said. It must also seek to maintain the validity of the T-MEC, he added.
At the same time, The government and the private sector must work to implement a comprehensive industrial policy that improves infrastructure and promotes greater added value for Mexican manufacturing, via a national import substitution program.
If imported inputs for products made in Mexico are reduced, regional and national content with quality components will increase, which will strengthen the country and allow it to fulfill its T-MEC commitments, he said.
Amid the uncertain outlook, Mexico must attract investment, Ley said. "What we have to do is go to Chinese companies that supply intermediate goods and tell them to come and manufacture them here," he said.
"If the Chinese come to manufacture in Mexico, we will create jobs and that production will be 100% Mexican products," said the ambassador.
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