Geopolitics is shaking up the global economic order: uncertainty is the new norm.

Uncertainty is the norm. We are navigating a turbulent 2025, full of uncertainties and challenges, with the intensification of old and new conflicts that are shaking up global geopolitics, disrupting markets, finances, and lives.

" Guidelines for Navigating a 2025 of Uncertainties and Challenges" was the central theme of the forum that El Confidencial and PIMCO shared on Wednesday the 25th at Madrid's El Beatriz auditorium. Donald Trump 's arrival as president on January 20th, his second term leading a superpower like the United States, has played a role in the upheaval on the international stage with the activation of protectionist policies that have convulsed global markets in ups and downs of attack and counterattack.

From this starting point, almost two hours of dialectical analysis followed with two outstanding speakers: Richard Clarida, former vice president of the United States Federal Reserve and managing director of the PIMCO office in New York, and Josep Oliu , president of Banco Sabadell, who comes to this forum at a crucial moment for the future of his entity, under the threat of a takeover bid by BBVA and just one day after the Government has tightened the conditions for authorizing it.

"The world we knew no longer exists, and it's no wonder the economy is losing momentum," said Nacho Cardero, director of El Confidencial, at the opening. Adding to the explosive cocktail of the war between Ukraine and Russia in Europe and the eternal powder keg of the Middle East is Iran, and the recent US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, following in the footsteps of Israel.

However, Richard Clarida maintained that "the fundamentals of US consumption are historically strong," based on a dollar that has also remained statistically stable. He also stated that there is "greater room for maneuver" for central banks to cut interest rates than before 2020, with the turning point marked by the pandemic.

Clarida: Bonds provide a cushion to navigate a fragmented world

Clarida spoke at length with Juanma Jiménez, PIMCO's vice president, during a presentation they called "The Age of Fragmentation," which was based on statistical data.

The former Fed vice chairman predicted that "bonds are positioned to perform well in absolute and relative terms after yield adjustment." However, he conceded that some "negative correlations" between stocks and bonds have likely returned to the markets. " They provide a cushion to navigate a fragmented world," Clarida argued.

Banco Sabadell Chairman Josep Oliu succeeded Clarida on stage to speak with El Confidencial journalist Javier Jorrín in a talk entitled "Banking and the New Global Order: Risks and Opportunities." The conversation comes at a crucial time for the future of the financial institution rooted in Catalonia—which temporarily relocated to Alicante during the Catalan independence process and has since returned to its historic headquarters in the Catalan town.

“After the financial crisis, regulation has evolved, and the system has a robustness that we didn't have in 2007,” said Oliu, who this week witnessed the government tightening conditions for BBVA to succeed in its takeover bid for Sabadell. “The solvency of the banks is beyond question. The risk culture that has developed in recent years is different, as are the governance systems,” he argued.

The Catalan financier was clear about the real estate sector and the concern over housing, which has risen in the polls as the main problem (and concern) in Spain. " There is no risk of a real estate bubble in Spain and the United States," he concluded. However, he admits that "new risks are increasingly coming from abroad," with growing concern over tariffs.

"We're in a period of suspense, as Trump is undiplomatic. Before, it was 5%, now it's 14%, and we don't know where it will end up," Oliu summarized, advocating "consolidating the capital markets and banks for the integration of the European financial system." "We must encourage this to happen from a political perspective to create large European investment banks. It will happen if there is a sufficient framework and incentives for them to emerge in Europe," he concluded.

Change in the rules of the game

Clarida and Oliu's presentations were followed by a packed round table discussion featuring José Manuel González-Páramo, former Executive Director of BE and Chairman of the Board of Directors of European Data Warehouse ; Nemesio Fernández-Cuesta , Senior Energy Advisor at Alantra Partners ; Raymond Torres, Director of Economic Situation of Funcas and Miguel Otero, senior researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute.

"Are the political risks different now?" asked Ramón González Ferriz, a journalist with El Confidencial. "The new element is that we don't know the rules of the game," responded Raymond Torres. "We're going to have to assume greater leadership from the states at a joint level to ensure European defense in a context in which the American ally has said it's not sure it can guarantee it." "It's important to perfect state intervention in public goods and trust in the market," Torres added.

Fdez-Cuesta: "The United States has bombed Iran and nothing has happened in the markets."

Drawing on his experience in the energy sector, Fernández-Cuesta broke the ice to reflect aloud on an international landscape that too often convulses in the face of war. " The United States has bombed Iran—a major producer in the Middle East—and practically nothing has happened in the market," he said, after noting that another fundamental change is that the US has become a "net exporter of oil and gas."

“The axis on which the world economic order has pivoted for the past 70 years has cracked,” González Páramo considered, delving into the shared idea that the rules of the geopolitical game have changed and uncertainty is the new norm . Páramo emphasized “higher tariffs than we are used to” but pointed out a counterpoint for the Trump administration. “It is in a weaker position than before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs,” he noted.

For his part, researcher Miguel Otero delved into the idea that "geopolitics rules." He drew a parallel between the current period and Richard Nixon's term (1969-1974), with China rivaling the United States and displacing Europe in that period. "The challenge that China represents to American hegemony has not been seen in the last 70 years."

"Could the paradox of moving toward more state-based capitalism and reversing the European regulation of recent years occur? " Férriz posed. "It's one thing to have a stake in strategic industries, and another thing to enter into management, appointing presidents and directors," Páramo concluded. "We need the European Union to function as a country, with alliances of variable geometry," Fernández-Cuesta pointed out.

In the final stretch, all the speakers answered a common question: What risks are we not paying attention to? For Raymond Torres, it is " war conflicts" as the "greatest risk." In Páramo's opinion, it is necessary to "have our house in order" for a swift response to adversity, while Fernández-Cuesta called for "adaptation to climate change ." Finally, Miguel Otero warned about stablecoins , known as stable cryptocurrencies. "Anyone can issue them, but no one can control them," he predicted.