Inflation in May was 1.5% in the country and is the lowest figure in the last five years.

Thus, so far this year, inflation has accumulated an increase of 13.3%, while in twelve months it reached 43.5%, according to INDEC . Meanwhile, core inflation reached 2.2%, indicating a slowdown of one percentage point.

Inflation data by category, according to INDEC corresponding to May 2025

Indec

The division with the largest increase in sales for the month was Communications (4.1%) , due to increases in Telephone and Internet Services. This was followed by Restaurants and Hotels (3%), due to increases in Restaurants and Dining Out.

Compared to the previous month, May shows a decrease of 1.3% , or almost half of the price increase recorded in April.

Indec May 2025

Indec

This index represented a 0.9 percentage point drop from 3.7% in March, following the measures adopted to partially lift the exchange rate restrictions and the introduction of a floating rate regime for the dollar.

The Ministry of Economy, headed by Luis Caputo , reported that "core inflation" was 2.2%, a seasonal variation of -2.7% and a regulated variation of 1.3%.

He also emphasized that "excluding the specific impact on the CPI in the first months of the pandemic, monthly inflation was the lowest since November 2017."

The Ministry of Finance also noted that the 43.5% year-on-year cost of living increase was "the lowest in thirteen consecutive months of slowdown , compared to the same month last year. This year-on-year change was the lowest since March 2021."

He also stressed that cumulative inflation in the first five months of the year was 13.3% , "the lowest for this period of the year since 2020."

The Ministry of Finance noted that "the six-month moving average, which allows for a more accurate assessment of inflation trends, was the lowest since October 2020."

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Meanwhile, the monthly variation in the Basic Food Basket and the Total Basic Basket was -0.4% and 0.1% , respectively. In both cases, these were the lowest variations since the current series began in 2016.

Last Monday, the City of Buenos Aires reported that the cost of living had reached 1.6% , also marking the lowest level in five years.

The Buenos Aires City Price Index has thus accumulated a 12.9% increase in the first five months of the year, and a year-over-year increase of 48.3%, according to data from the Buenos Aires Institute of Statistics and Census.

In recent days, experts expected INDEC's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May to break 2% , indicating a further slowdown compared to the previous reading.

After having registered a decrease in the April increase (2.8%) compared to the acceleration shown in March (3.7%), the inflation index continues to return to the path of deceleration , according to estimates by private analysts and the Government.

Finally, the forecast figure of 1.5% was met, representing the lowest level in five years , since if it approached 2% or broke that threshold, it would dethrone the mark from last January (2.2%), which is currently the lowest since July 2020 (1.9%).

The Market Expectations Survey (REM) , prepared by the Central Bank based on private estimates, predicted that inflation for the fifth month of 2025 would have been 2.1% and expects year-on-year inflation to close 2025 at 28.6%.

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The Nation

The Equilibra report indicated that monthly inflation fell to 2% last month, with the largest increases recorded in restaurants and hotels (3.5%), communications (3.1%), and housing, water, electricity, and other fuels (3.1%). The year-over-year increase was estimated at 44%.

EcoGo Consultores , for its part, estimated that inflation last month reached 1.9%, with the average variation in food and beverage prices climbing to 2.5%, highlighting that the overall figure would be "finally breaking the long-sought 2% barrier."

Regarding the dynamics of food prices, he highlighted that they were 1.4 percentage points lower than in April, noting that "while the drop in fruit prices was notable (-6%), the rest of the categories, with the exception of oils and fats (+4.6%), did not show particularly strong increases." Meat prices rose 2.3%.

The Freedom and Progress Foundation estimated that inflation closed at 1.8%, a 1 percentage point slowdown compared to the official April figure (2.8%), and highlighted that "it would be the lowest monthly CPI since May 2020, although if the pandemic years are excluded, it would be the lowest since November 2017."

Thus, year-to-date inflation has reached 13.6%, while the year-on-year change stood at 44.0%, 167 percentage points lower than in December 2023 and the lowest since March 2021.