May would mark another drop in inflation: consulting firms project a rate below 2.6%.

Inflation continues to show signs of moderation. After the 2.8% officially recorded in April , leading private consulting firms estimate that May could close with a variation close to 2.5% or even lower , thus consolidating the downward trend. In this context, the food category once again played a central role, this time as the index's anchor, in contrast to what occurred in previous months.

The forecasts are based on the first weekly measurements. According to Eco Go, food consumed at home accumulated a 1.8% increase in May, while the projected monthly increase for the entire category—including consumption outside the home—is 2.5% . The consulting firm attributes the moderation to less pressure from seasonal products, such as fruits and vegetables, as well as a more stable performance of meats, where the rear cuts remained unchanged and the fore cuts rose only 0.2% .

Eco Go also noted that food prices registered a 0.4% increase in the second week of the month, slightly accelerating compared to the previous period. During this period, fruits and vegetables fell 0.2% and 0.9% , respectively, with citrus fruits seeing a notable decline (–5.2%).

Meanwhile, household goods saw significant increases, especially in the week leading up to the Hot Sale. Tableware (up 4.7%), mattresses and pillows (up 4.5%), and household items (up 6.4%) led the increases, partially affecting the price index.

According to the consulting firm PxQ, headed by Emmanuel Álvarez Agis , monthly inflation is estimated to be below 2.5% , with a strong influence from regulated sectors, which increased in May: gas fares (+3%), bus tickets (+5%) and subway (+5.8%) were some of the notable adjustments.

Additionally, increases were observed in water (+1%) and electricity (+2.4%). Communication services averaged a 3% increase, and health insurance spending decreased by 2.6% . On the other hand, fuel prices fell by 3.5% , helping to contain the overall index.

Analytica economist Ricardo Delgado said that May will hover around 2.6% , with a significant slowdown in food and beverages. "This category accounts for nearly 27% of the CPI, so any change directly impacts the overall index," he emphasized.

Delgado also linked the decline to the moderate adjustment in tariffs and the exchange rate stability following the lifting of the restrictions. "The seasonality of the harvest, the lower uncertainty, and the drop in fuel prices are contributing to the disinflation process," he explained.

For his part, Fausto Spotorno (OJF & Asociados) estimated inflation of between 2% and 2.5% , highlighting the strong performance in the first week of the month, when they measured an increase of just 0.9% . The most notable sectors were recreation (up 4.3%), housing (up 3.5%), and transportation and communications (up 2.1%).

Along the same lines, Camilo Tiscornia (C&T Economic Advisors) predicted a 2% index, driven by a drop in vegetables and other fresh foods. Eugenio Marí , of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso , placed the projection at 2.6% , highlighting the slowdown in prices as a result of "the exchange rate unification and the lower country risk."

In the City of Buenos Aires , the CPIBA (Central American Product Index) rose 2.3% in April , according to the Buenos Aires Institute of Statistics (Idecba), a decrease compared to March (3.2%). The cumulative rate for the first four months of the year was 11.1% , while the year-over-year rate reached 52.4% .

The housing and utilities segment saw the greatest impact in April (up 2.4%), followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 2.2%). Within this latter group, meat rose 5% and dairy products, 3.8%. The decline in vegetables and legumes helped contain the average.

From the Central Bank , Vice President Vladimir Werning reaffirmed this week that the high-frequency data collected by the institution coincide with private projections. "The downward trend that began in April is expected to deepen in May. Macroeconomic fundamentals continue to act to deflate the economy's nominal value," he stated.

The latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) predicted inflation of 2.8% for May. However, after the official April figure (2.8%) fell short of forecasts, consulting firms revised their estimates again, which are now closer to 2.5%.

If these projections are confirmed, May would consolidate the third consecutive month of inflationary deceleration in Argentina, something that has not occurred since mid-2022. Although increases in some services and durable goods persist, the market is beginning to interpret the new macroeconomic equilibrium with greater predictability and less pressure on prices.