Mexican avocado exports are expected to reach a record $4 billion in 2025.

Mexican avocado exports are expected to reach a record high of $4 billion in 2025, according to projections released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In 2024, exports of this fruit from Mexico reached a record high of $3.787 billion, a 20.1% increase over 2023.

The USDA forecast that, in terms of volume, Mexican avocado exports will total 1.34 million metric tons in 2025, a 5% year-over-year increase to meet growing international demand, primarily from the United States.

In 2024, estimated exports were 1.28 million metric tons, a 9% decrease compared to 2023, primarily due to increased logistics costs and harvest fluctuations. Exports to the United States reached 1.07 million metric tons in 2024, a 5% decrease compared to the previous year.

EU, main destination

The U.S. market accounts for more than 80% of Mexico's total avocado exports by volume, followed by Canada (7%) and Japan (3 percent).

Although avocado exports are made year-round, the peak season is from December to February (representing more than 35% of exports).

The Super Bowl is the main driver of demand for Mexican avocado exports to the United States. Mexico supplied approximately 88% of total U.S. avocado imports in 2024.

The USDA reports that export markets generally prefer Hass avocados over other varieties due to their flavor, texture, and durability.

In 2024, avocados ranked third among Mexico's agricultural exports, after beer and tequila, and ahead of berries and tomatoes.

Conversely, Mexico is not a major importer of avocados; imports come primarily from Peru and Colombia to meet domestic demand during periods of seasonal low production.

According to the USDA, imports are projected to reach 3,800 metric tons in 2025, down from the estimated 4,200 metric tons in 2024, due to stable production growth and relatively moderate consumption growth.

Imports have been declining in line with the increase in domestic production from a record high of 5,550 metric tons in 2022, when reduced availability of water and other inputs limited production in producing areas dedicated to supplying the domestic market, resulting in increased imports.

Production on the rise

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects avocado production in Mexico to reach 2.75 million metric tons in 2025, a 3% increase from the 2.67 million metric tons estimated for 2024, thanks to favorable growing conditions, improved agricultural practices, and strong export demand.

Planted area is also expected to remain virtually unchanged at 256,500 hectares in 2025, according to grower reports of limited new plantings, in line with increased enforcement of land-use regulations and a new deforestation-free certification program in the state of Michoacán.

Data from Mexico's Agri-Food and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP) estimate the area planted with avocados in 2024 at 256,200 hectares, a 1% reduction compared to 2023.

The last five years have seen a significant increase in production, especially in the Jalisco Valley region, as producers diversify their crop mix to include avocados or completely eliminate corn, wheat, and pastureland in favor of avocado orchards. Domestically, avocado consumption in Mexico has increased in recent years, as consumers have greater access to the fruit.