Mexico's rating is low risk: Moody's and BBVA agree on a pessimistic future

MEXICO CITY.— Moody's Ratings said Wednesday that external uncertainty such as tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and the remittance tax are putting Mexico's credit rating at risk while also casting doubt on the future growth of the Mexican economy, indicating it could be close to 0%.

In an interview on Banorte's Norte Económico podcast, Renzo Merino , the agency's vice president and analyst for Mexico, highlighted these issues among the risks arising from the external environment.

He said that from a rating perspective, which Moody's has assigned Mexico a Baa2 rating , two notches below investment grade, with a negative outlook since November of last year, "these external risk factors are key to what could lead to a possible rating downgrade."

On the subject of tariffs, he noted that "it has generated a lot of uncertainty because in the more than 100 days of the Trump administration, there have been many swings in the implementation of tariff policy."

He explained that the main result of these policy changes "is that they generate uncertainty," especially in Mexico's exports, which are very important to the United States, its main trading partner. He also noted that there is concern regarding long-term investment decisions in Mexico.

"While we believe that economic growth this year will be relatively low—in Mexico's case, probably close to 0%—what we are considering is what the pace of growth will be for the Mexican economy in the coming years," said Renzo Merino.

On the topic of remittances and potential taxes that could be levied on these money transfers from the U.S. to other countries, Merino noted that remittances, in the context of Latin America, "are very important for the Central American economies and also for Mexico, although perhaps to a lesser extent."

On Tuesday, BBVA revised its growth forecast for Mexico in 2025 downward, anticipating a 0.4% contraction, mainly due to domestic uncertainty and the impact of U.S. tariffs.

The financial institution also anticipated a recovery in 2026, with growth of 1.2%, similar to what the IMF expected.