Tariffs: Trump's dinosaur reloaded

When the 12-Day War ended, the tariffs were still there.

With Augusto Monterroso's permission, it's the dinosaur who's there, the one who now re-emerges more conceited after what he presents as a military victory that gives him the air he needed after several defeats: that's Donald Trump.

In Mexico, the attention generated by the political phenomenon of the President of the United States distracts from the attention deserved by the demons running riot in our own country, which are now achieving militarization and censorship, and are on their way to delivering the final blow to democracy with the disappearance of the citizen INE.

The truce in the Middle East is just that: an impasse in a decades-long conflict between Iranians and Israelis, giving economies space to return their attention to a threat—not military, but commercial—that is not far from generating stagflation, recession, and inflation.

Donald Trump's ego is bolstered today by his apparent military triumph, and if the polls support his MAGA (Make America Great Again) followers, it will be harder to see him back down in the bilateral negotiations he undertakes with the markets affected by his tariffs.

The next key date is July 9, the date the Trump administration unilaterally imposed to end bilateral negotiations and implement so-called reciprocal tariffs.

Trump left the military command center, boarded Air Force One for The Hague, Netherlands, and returned with what he wanted: a commitment from NATO members to increase military spending to 5% of their Gross Domestic Product.

With this sense of omnipotence, he will want to negotiate trade agreements with everyone, or almost everyone, because China has already shown him that it can handle itself.

And in this ongoing confusion in the era of Trump 2.0, Mexico must seek not only a moderately convenient trade agreement, but something similar to what was once called the "whole enchilada," that early-20th-century attempt to link migration, security, and trade that failed due to the 9/11 attacks.

Even with the Trump administration's increased pressure against Mexican interests, this country can gain an advantage if it understands the importance of strengthening the border for U.S. security today, not only to curb migration or drug trafficking, but also to address any terrorist threat.

Trump tells a story of military success and the surrender of the Iranian regime, foreshadowing the future consequences for those he considers his enemies.

The trade threat remains, raids across that country continue, and progress in trade negotiations is slow and so far unproductive, but that is the reality of the bilateral relationship these days.

It's too early to know whether Trump has truly achieved victory in the Middle East, but what is clear is that he will be more arrogant today, and relations with Mexico—trade, immigration, and security—are among his outstanding issues.