The IMF sets Argentina's review for July 31, and the market anticipates a new phase of the economic plan.
The board of directors of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has already set a tentative date to address the Argentine case: July 31 , although the date has not yet appeared on the organization's official website. Barring any surprises, the first revision of the renewed agreement with the Javier Milei government, signed in April, will be approved on that day. The support would come at a key moment, when local politics are strained and the economy is showing signs of wear.
From Washington, the message seems clear: there is recognition for the fiscal effort and the decline in inflation, but also a warning about the weakness in the pace of reserve accumulation. Although the IMF will grant a waiver (formal pardon) for not meeting this specific target, it will insist that this is an essential condition for maintaining exchange rate stability.
Despite the turbulence, the government is entering the exam with some concrete achievements. Since January, the Ministry of Economy has posted a financial surplus every month, except for December 2023 and, possibly, July. Furthermore, inflation has dropped to levels that surprised even the economic team. The combination of public spending cuts, curbing issuance, and opening up the economy yielded rapid results.
The Treasury also did its part in the hunt for foreign currency: this week it acquired US$320 million in the market, bringing the total for the month to US$764 million . Added to this were the US$1 billion obtained from bonds and the US$2 billion obtained by the Central Bank through a financial operation with international banks. This emergency engineering effort prevented another reserve default.
#BankReport | Credit in pesos to the private sector increased 3.5% in real terms in May: Secured loans showed the greatest monthly growth (5.3% in real terms), followed by consumer loans (2.9% in real terms) and commercial lines (2% in real terms).
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This pragmatism contrasts with the early discourses of the Millennium, when there was talk of blowing up the Central Bank or of immediate dollarization with pre-agreed funds. Today, the dollar floats freely, but the Central Bank intervenes, raises rates, and once again uses passive swaps to dry up the market . A containment strategy to prevent the exchange rate from dominating newspaper headlines.
In recent weeks, the government has tightened its monetary policy to stem the rise of the dollar, which reached nearly $1,300 at retail banks . The Central Bank reactivated intervention in the futures market, raised interest rates in pesos, and resumed absorption tools that had been discarded months ago. The objective: to discourage the jump to the dollar in the midst of the electoral race.
However, some indicators are showing warning signs. Personal loan delinquency rates have doubled at certain banks, reaching levels close to 6%. Financial sector sources explain that consumers are now using loans to cover basic expenses, such as food. It is also striking that delinquency rates are rising even as credit expansion continues unabated. For some analysts, these are signs of exhaustion.
The market is already assuming that, after the October elections, the Executive Branch will have to launch a new phase of its plan. The dollar, the accumulation of reserves, and a redesign of the productive model are among the key points. But the heart of the next phase will be the package of structural reforms: labor, tax, and pension reforms. Without these changes, the macroeconomic situation risks faltering again.
The problem is political. The confrontation with the governors not only strained institutional bridges, it also highlighted La Libertad Avanza's difficulties in forging agreements . Many leaders who collaborated on key votes now complain of noncompliance. Delays in transfers, paralyzed public works projects, and even political competition in their districts fuel the discontent.
The President, some say, has devoted more time to his international agenda than to dialogue with the provinces. So far in his administration, he has visited only 12 of the 24 districts and spent 83 days abroad. Meanwhile, in Santa Fe, signs are already visible indicating abandoned routes across the nation. In Tigre, unfinished construction projects have been posting pedestrian warnings for months.
With its sights set on October, the ruling party is betting everything on another electoral victory. It trusts that the support at the polls will reaffirm its legitimacy and force the "caste" to concede. But even with a reinforced majority, Congress will remain a hostile terrain. Without agreements, neither Milei nor her reforms will be able to advance.
At the same time, a clear order is circulating: halt all payments to the provinces, except for strategic exceptions. This week, only Salta, Jujuy, and Tucumán received temporary advances of $3.5 billion each . The rest will have to wait. The signal is clear: power belongs to those who win, and those who don't fall in line are out.
The problem is that, even with a landslide victory at the polls, the government will need "heroes" from other blocs to pass its laws. And if it fails to build those bridges, it will have no choice but to continue governing with a clean veto. The economy can hold out for a few more months, but without consensus, the fourth phase of the plan may be born already exhausted.
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