The least expected export destination for Vaca Muerta gas

One early April morning in 2030, a surprising piece of news appeared in the newspaper: Argentina was exporting its first shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It wasn't the unexpected, but the destination: the U.S. market.

Various Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) have been signed in the past in other countries, such as India, Germany, and other countries in Europe and the Far East, to name just a few examples.

How was it possible, then, that these first LNG shipments were headed to the US? By 2025, the United States was the world's largest gas exporter, and the then-president, under the slogan "drill, baby, drill," had supported hydrocarbon exploration and production, particularly shale oil and shale gas . What happened?

It turns out that unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs (gas, for example) have a shorter lifespan than conventional ones. Consequently, while an unconventional reservoir has a useful life of 20-25 years, a conventional one has a longer lifespan, between 25 and even 30 years.

This is linked to the way a shale deposit is exploited. It's through fracking , or breaking up the parent rock, where the gas is found in its "pores."

This requires investment frequency approximately every six months to prevent the well from rapidly declining. It gradually becomes depleted and requires frequent investment to maintain reservoir production.

The US began developing its shale gas around 2004. Consequently, we have maintained—before now—that production from its wells would enter a decline by 2030. Coincidentally, a colleague whom we have known since her time as head of Occidental ( OXY ) Colombia, at the famous CERAWEEK 2025 meeting-congress, pointed out that the US shale would begin to decline by 2027/8. I am referring to Vicky Hollub , now president of OXY worldwide, who is a true authority on the subject.

Among its recent achievements at the time (mid-2020s) was achieving a CO2-containing capacity for OXY's hydrocarbon production process, both during extraction and processing (refining). This has been a pioneering effort for this entire sector worldwide.

That's why Argentina has a potential market for its LNG exports in 2030. Based on those ideas from the mid-1920s, it could successfully compete against its current geoeconomic isolation.

The issue of the long distance from the markets, with its consequent freight costs, would now be resolved with a new, much closer market in the Americas , in the North Node, instead of having to export to Asia, or to Mediterranean Europe, much further away than the hemispheric route.

What is described appears not only to be a credible reality, but also viable , taking into account future scenarios towards this new decade.

Today's world (2025) has changed compared to the beginning of the millennium and will undoubtedly be different from that of the next 30 years. We must visualize the alternatives and challenges of these scenarios so that Argentina can achieve its main objectives. In this case, the best alternatives for exporting its LNG to the international market.