The national government anticipates an external deficit five times larger than that forecast by the IMF, but attributes it to economic growth.

The national government acknowledged this Thursday that the current account balance of payments will close the year with a deficit of 2% of GDP , a figure five times higher than the 0.4% projected in the last agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . However, the Ministry of Economy downplayed the impact of this figure and asserted that it reflects a growing economy and higher investment levels.

The person in charge of providing this explanation was the Deputy Minister of Economy, José Luis Daza , during his participation in the economic forum organized by the International Institute of Finance (IIF) at Banco Galicia. There, the official maintained that the external imbalance is "expected" in growing countries: " A 2% deficit in an economy growing at 6% is absolutely normal ."

Daza emphasized that the current account deficit—which includes the balance of goods, services, income, and transfers—is primarily fueled by increased investment. "There is a spending component, yes, but it's largely explained by investment. We see it as part of the economic recovery process ," he explained.

Furthermore, in response to criticism about the lack of sharp movements in the exchange rate, he defended the current exchange rate regime: "Today we have a floating exchange rate. There are no price or exchange rate controls, nor are parity fixing. But Argentines aren't used to floating rates," he quipped.

The official explanation came hours after the release of the INDEC report on the balance of payments, which revealed an external deficit of nearly US$5.2 billion in the first quarter of the year, equivalent to 0.7% of quarterly GDP, according to calculations by the consulting firm Outlier.

This figure includes a combination of factors: a smaller trade surplus due to increased imports, a larger services deficit—especially due to tourism abroad—and a growing deficit in primary income, all driven by an exchange rate that remains relatively "cheap."

Regarding exchange rate stability, Daza denied the existence of artificial intervention: " The exchange rate is not fixed, it's floating. It will be determined by supply and demand. When there is low volatility, some believe it is controlled, but that is not the case ."

The deputy minister also recalled recent international experiences to contextualize the deficit. He mentioned cases such as Spain (14%), Romania (18%), and Mexico (7%) during their respective crises, emphasizing that what matters is not only the size of the external deficit, but also its quality and the conditions that accompany it.

According to INDEC, the current account deficit was financed primarily by the sale of external assets and borrowing. "The consolidated public sector reduced its net assets by more than US$4.5 billion, including a decrease in reserves, the Repurchase Agreement (REPO), and bond cancellations. The remainder was contributed by the private sector," Outlier explained.

Finally, Daza insisted that the deficit should not be interpreted as a structural problem: " We must not only look at the number, but also at the context. It is an imbalance that arises from economic growth and increased investment, not from excessive consumption or lax fiscal policies as in the past ."