The new golden age of aviation meets industrial turbulence

Commercial aviation is experiencing one of its most bittersweet moments. Although it has already managed to recover pre-pandemic traffic levels , and has even further increased demand for flights this year, this industry cannot spread its wings due to a lack of aircraft. Yes, there is a shortage of aircraft. Hence, it is now common for them to be packed with passengers on every flight (especially in the summer). Manufacturers, especially Airbus and Boeing, are struggling to meet their backlog of orders, which continue to accumulate year after year. This is impeded by the difficulties that have been dragging on in the supply chain since Covid, that is, since 2020. This could jeopardize the journey toward decarbonization that this sector, committed to reaching zero emissions by 2050, was beginning to embark on.

Commercial aviation is truly experiencing a golden age. Air travel is accessible to virtually everyone. "More people are flying than ever," says Rafael Márquez, coordinator of the Aviation Committee of Tedae, the Spanish Association of Defense, Security, Aeronautics, and Space Technology Companies. In fact, according to IATA (the International Air Transport Association) , global demand, measured in passenger-kilometers transported, grew 10.4% in 2024 compared to 2023 and 3.8% above 2019 levels, reaching record figures, according to the organization.

And this is due to several reasons. "There is a very significant appetite for travel and flying. People have prioritized leisure activities after the pandemic," emphasizes Ricardo Rojas, director of Commercial Aircraft in Spain at Airbus. There is also a significant boost from several emerging markets (Asian, African, and Latin American countries), where a middle class eager to explore the world is beginning to emerge. And there is another reason: faced with the environmental requirements they must face and also seeking to achieve savings, airlines "are replacing their aircraft fleets with new-generation aircraft that consume 25% less fuel. This is an important parameter in the companies' costs," Rojas points out.

This strong demand will require new aircraft to meet it. "Air traffic growth entails an expansion of routes and frequencies by airlines, which requires the incorporation of new aircraft," says Javier Gándara, president of ALA (the Association of Airlines). In fact, Boeing's forecast, according to the "Commercial Market Outlook " report published annually by the American company, is that 43,975 commercial aircraft and related services will be needed over the next twenty years. To achieve this, aircraft deliveries would have to increase by 3% each year.

Well, this high demand today is not keeping pace with the pace at which aircraft are being manufactured to meet it. IATA estimates that the global commercial fleet will grow by 3.2% annually, while flight demand will grow by 8%.

At the moment, IATA estimates that the order book for new aircraft has already reached a maximum of 17,000 units. At the current delivery rate, it will take 14 years to deliver these aircraft to their owners, double the average of six years from the previous decade. Airbus alone had an order book of 8,658 aircraft at the end of 2024, while Boeing had 5,595. "As airlines seek to expand their fleets to satisfy a growing number of travelers, coupled with the end of the useful life of some fleets, the need for new aircraft has become critical," explains Óscar Martín, partner and head of the Aerospace and Defense sector at Deloitte Spain.

Aircraft shortages are a global problem affecting the vast majority of airlines. And that has its consequences. "In 2024, 30% fewer aircraft were delivered than expected, and in 2025, it appears the situation is not entirely resolved. This lack of availability continues to be a constraint on airline growth, but we are looking for ways to minimize this impact. For example, in many cases, the rental periods of leased aircraft are being extended," explains Gándara.

Other times, airlines are forced to adjust their flight schedules (including canceling routes or reducing frequencies), lease aircraft to other carriers, or ground planes or bring them back to the repair shop more often for repairs and maintenance. "The potential delays in meeting the demand for new aircraft increase the need to extend the lifespan of existing fleets, requiring improved MRO (maintenance and repair) processes to make them more efficient, all supported by the incorporation of new technologies such as AI," explains Óscar Martín.

And this entire list of measures to counteract the lack of aircraft entails additional costs, to which must be added higher fuel costs for operating with less efficient aircraft that cannot be replaced with new, less polluting ones. And starting next year, we must also take into account that commercial aviation will have to pay all its emissions allowances. By operating with more polluting aircraft, it will pay more allowances. And on top of all this, there are the lost profits because companies cannot grow.

Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, explained in a recent statement: "Supply chain problems," he said, "are frustrating all airlines, as they see their revenues compromised, are exposed to higher costs and poorer environmental performance. Furthermore, aging fleets generate higher maintenance costs, consume more fuel, and require more financial resources to continue flying. And if that weren't enough, the cost of leasing aircraft has increased above interest rates, as competition between airlines has intensified the fight to find any way to expand capacity."

And this happens to almost all airlines: Germany's Lufthansa, Britain's British Airways, America Airlines, France's France-KLM... And also to low-cost airlines like Ryanair, Jest2.com, Volotea...

Spanish airlines are not immune either. According to various media reports, the flagship airline Iberia has had to lease aircraft from other companies to operate some long-haul routes (including those to Venezuela, Cuba, and Panama). Iberia declined to provide ABC with information on its situation or an assessment of the aircraft shortage.

The lack of aircraft hasn't prevented Spanish airline Air Europa from reactivating routes it was no longer operating this summer, such as to Venice, Athens, Marrakech, and Tunis, and from opening new ones, such as Istanbul. "We have an alliance with Boeing to equip our fleet with models from this manufacturer. This has allowed us to have the most modern and efficient aircraft on the market, as well as achieving optimal fleet management. The first of the eleven 737 MAXs we will receive by 2026 is scheduled to arrive on May 21st, and three new Dreamliners have been added this year," says Air Europa.

Due to delays in aircraft deliveries, this airline acknowledges that it has had to work occasionally by leasing aircraft on wet leases (with crew) from other companies. "It allows us to cover specific peaks in demand. This is quite common in our sector," say company sources. Now, with the new Globalia hangar (the holding company to which Air Europa belongs) at Madrid-Barajas Airport, an impressive structure measuring more than 11,000 m2, little larger than a football field, the airline has increased its capacity to perform repairs and maintenance on operational aircraft. "Safety is always a priority. Regardless of the arrival dates of new aircraft, we work with the goal of ensuring that operations are, above all, safe," states Air Europa.

At this time, the regional airline Air Nostrum does not have any aircraft pending delivery. "The current fleet still has enough service due to its age, with an average age of 12 years, which is very similar to that of other Spanish airlines. However, the company is working in the near future to remain at the forefront of technology with aircraft that can provide even better service to our passengers and are more sustainable," say sources at the company.

The situation is complicated for airlines, but it's also not easy for manufacturers, who are struggling with a supply chain that hasn't fully recovered since Covid. "Aircraft production dropped by 60% in the first months of the pandemic, and this also affected the supply chain," recalls Ricardo Rojas (Airbus).

It hasn't recovered since then. For many reasons. The commercial aviation supply chain is global, therefore subject to the whims of geopolitical fluctuations, and it's also peculiar, as experts agree. "We have thousands of suppliers from all over the world. Just to give an idea of ​​what this entails: we buy 80% of the components of an Airbus aircraft from abroad. It's a highly specialized chain that requires a certification process for every new part, innovation, or new technology it introduces in order to guarantee passenger safety. It also requires a highly skilled workforce," Rojas explains.

"The aerospace supply chain is one of the most complex in the world, with interdependent suppliers spread across multiple levels and of varying sizes. The speed at which the ecosystem adapts to meet demand is inconsistent, which creates tensions in ensuring the music plays well throughout the entire value chain. Technological transformation, financial health, talent management, and geopolitical tensions have become key elements to manage," says Óscar Martín. In fact, Rafael Martínez explains how "there are conflicts that have had a particular impact, for example, the lack of materials such as titanium, steel, and aluminum, essential for aircraft manufacturing, due to the geostrategic problems of some of its main producers, namely Russia, China, and the United States."

Due to all these peculiarities, there is still time until the supply chain is fully recovered. According to forecasts by Cirium, a leading industry expert, between 2024 and 2027, there will be a 5% drop in aircraft deliveries due to component shortages. "It's all gradual; there is a solution, but it takes time. Alternatives are being sought, for example, large-scale purchases of materials between manufacturers and suppliers to benefit from economies of scale," says Rafael Márquez. There are cases like that of the company Spirit AeroSystems , which manufactures large aerostructures for aircraft and has gone bankrupt. "Airbus decided to buy the share of the company that manufactures our components, and Boeing will also acquire its corresponding share," says Ricardo Rojas.

Both manufacturers thus guarantee the supply of these parts. But Airbus itself acknowledges that, although it intends to increase aircraft production to 1,000 units per year (last year they delivered 766 and this year they aim to reach 820), "it will take us around ten years to fulfill current orders (8,658 units in 2024)," Rojas believes.

In this situation, it's logical to ask whether the aircraft shortage could also jeopardize the future challenges facing the sector, primarily its journey toward decarbonization. And with it, the development of new, lighter materials, new, less polluting fuels, new engines that consume less fuel, or new technologies such as electric and green hydrogen-powered aircraft. The IATA director himself recently acknowledged that "progress is limited by the supply chain crisis that manufacturers need to resolve." And Cirium analysts estimate that the industry has lost approximately three to four years of growth since 2020 due to supply chain difficulties.

The most important challenge facing commercial aviation is its decarbonization. Today, it accounts for 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The industry itself has committed to becoming a zero-emission sector by 2050. "These delays represent an additional challenge on the path toward more sustainable air transport, but we do not believe they will slow the decarbonization of the aviation sector. Manufacturers, airlines, airports... we are all collaborating and committed to achieving the decarbonization of aviation," says Gándara. "We are all committed to continuing to develop sustainable solutions, even if the process may be slower than expected," insists Air Nostrum.

This year, the European Union's requirement to incorporate 2% SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) into each flight comes into force (6% by 2030). These are different types of fuel produced from organic waste that reduce CO2 emissions. "Today's aircraft engines already accept 50% SAF. The idea is to reach 100%. We want to increase SAF production and make it more profitable than kerosene," Rojas points out.

Therefore, despite the aircraft shortage, the industry continues to drive innovation. "At Airbus, innovation doesn't slow down; we're always introducing technological improvements," states Ricardo Rojas emphatically, describing the developments the European company has underway: "We're working on a replacement for the A320 model, which is the best-selling model. We're already thinking about what the next generation of aircraft will be like to achieve zero emissions. We want the new model to be in service by the middle of the next decade. We're working on engines that use 100% SAF and also on replacing turbines with an open rotor, a type of propeller. We're researching new, lighter and stronger composite materials that weigh less and, therefore, offer greater efficiency. We're designing new, larger wings that allow for a lighter aircraft, but due to their length, they will have to be foldable to access airports."

Another of Airbus's commitments is to develop the future green hydrogen aircraft. "The most feasible technology is to use fuel cells, which generate electricity from hydrogen. This must be stored at temperatures below -200°C. We are already thinking about the type of tank that will hold this hydrogen and how it will be distributed throughout the aircraft," Rojas explains.

Air Europa also wants to implement more sustainable solutions. It is modernizing its fleet and unifying it around models like the Boeing 787, which consumes less fuel. Since 2023, it has been using SAF fuel on certain routes and is also implementing other advanced technological solutions to improve operational efficiency. For example, the OptiClimb app provides flight-specific guidance on the optimal climb speed to reduce fuel consumption. And on the ground, aircraft apply the SETO (Single Engine Taxi Out) and SETI (Single Engine Taxi In) protocols, which involve taxiing out and in using a single engine. "We have already reduced the emissions we set for 2030 by 21%," Air Europa assures.

Air Nostrum is also pursuing zero-emission aircraft operations. It is involved in the Dovetail project for the electrification of the ATR72. Furthermore, "we are working on other advanced technologies to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. By using smaller aircraft for regional aviation, we have the opportunity to be pioneers in the implementation of new technologies due to scalability, as it is easier to implement improvements in smaller aircraft," the company adds.

New challenges to face as aviation takes off on its journey toward zero-emission skies.