The quantum revolution begins to seduce the markets

Quantum computing is beginning to establish itself as the next big technological leap for long-term investors. Although it's still in its infancy, expectations have grown sharply following the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years. At a time of relative calm in the sector—following the strong rebound of companies like Nvidia and ASML —this new segment has once again sparked market interest, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently stating that quantum computing is close to a turning point.

The reaction has not been long in coming. Rigetti Computing shares have soared 1,189% in the last year, rising from $0.88 to $11.35. IONQ has risen 484%, from $6.80 to $39.69. D-Wave , meanwhile, has climbed 1,328% in the same period, rising from just $1.10 to $15.71. These companies, along with pioneers like IBM —which launched its Quantum Experience platform in 2016—lead a sector that is still profitless, but with a technological narrative that promises to become the next major stock market catalyst.

After the initial AI boom, the market has sought out new trends with transformative potential, notes market analyst Javier Cabrera. In this context, " quantum computing has sparked interest due to its potential synergy with AI, as it would improve its computing and learning capabilities." However, Cabrera warns that this technology "is still in its early stages, and the challenge lies in determining when its real impact will begin to develop and how long this initial period, during which opportunity cost is key, will last."

The sector's stock market performance has been uneven, says Cabrera. While some companies are experiencing declines of over 40%, others are accumulating gains of over 60%, which, according to the analyst, "reflects their high sensitivity to statements from key figures in the technology sector." Cabrera explains that these are stocks with a strong speculative component and no consistent profits, so any deviation from expectations can lead to sharp corrections. Even so, he highlights IonQ and Rigetti as current benchmarks, although he points out that they are not yet generating cash on a sustained basis.

Cabrera highlights the potential of quantum computing for long-term investors, although he warns of its high volatility and risk . As was the case with dot-coms, not all firms will survive. Because they depend on future expectations, these companies are highly sensitive to the macroeconomic environment. Lower interest rates are beneficial to them by reducing the discount rate and facilitating financing. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve initiates cuts, the sector could rebound. However, beyond the financial context, the industry still faces profound structural challenges.

One of the main obstacles, according to Pilar Troncoso, director of operations at QCentroid, "is technological fragmentation." The different architectures—trapped ions, superconductors, photonics —evolve at uneven rates, complicating both investment and the creation of standards. Added to this is the gap between laboratory advances and their transfer to the business environment. Therefore, she believes that "there is still a lack of clear regulatory frameworks, specialized training, and applications with economic returns. Consolidating the sector will require closer coordination between governments, academia, large technology companies, and startups."

A complementary perspective is provided by Almudena Justo, director of the International Quantum Center at Fsas Technologies, who focuses on the technical limits. "Although the potential of quantum computing is enormous—from personalized medicine to disaster prediction—the technology is still in its infancy. In her opinion, the breakthrough will come when significant private investment and sustained public support converge. Meanwhile, large-scale adoption remains limited by the need to consolidate a more mature technological base."

Along the same lines, Miguel López, director for Southern EMEA at Barracuda Networks, emphasizes that "2025 is bringing significant advances, especially in stability and scalability." He agrees, emphasizing the importance of "public-private collaboration and institutional support, although he warns that high costs and a lack of infrastructure continue to hinder deployment." Real-world applications, he points out, remain confined to pilot environments, "which delays their industrial implementation."

From a more geostrategic perspective, Justo—from FSAS Technologies (a Fujitsu company)—points out that, "although the United States and China are leading the quantum race, Europe and Japan are also making significant progress." He laments that the EU still has a deficit in technology transfer and private financing for deep tech , "which is holding back startups." He considers the alliance with Japan key to accelerating development. He also points out that quantum could mitigate the growing energy consumption associated with artificial intelligence . In Spain, he insists, public support will be crucial to facilitate its adoption, especially among SMEs.

Pilar Troncoso of QCentroid proposes a complementary approach by focusing on how quantum computing has gone from being "a scientific challenge to becoming a geopolitical challenge." The United States leads the race in intellectual property and business development, while China is accelerating with significant state investment. Europe, for its part, is trying to translate its academic leadership into industrial capacity . Countries such as Germany, France, and Spain are consolidating ecosystems with their own strategies.

This strategic shift is also having an impact on the markets. Amadeo Alentorn, manager at Jupiter AM, observes a " squared hype effect " between quantum computing and AI, as the two feed off each other and amplify investor enthusiasm. Although the practical relationship between the two technologies is still in the exploratory phase, real synergies are already emerging. AI "is beginning to contribute to the design of quantum computers and algorithms, while quantum computing could be applied to complex optimization problems related to machine learning."

Dismissing quantum physics as an investment fad would be a mistake, Alentorn warns. Although progress is gradual, there are already working devices and advances in coherence and error correction. Applications will still be limited in 2025, but opportunities are opening up in hybrid algorithms and specific areas such as materials science , drug discovery, and post-quantum cryptography. Alentorn recommends "focusing investments on specialized software developers, rather than hardware manufacturers, and adopting a horizon of at least ten years."