Trump Declares Trade War: 30% Tariff on Mexico and the EU

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced the imposition of a blanket 30% tariff on all imports from Mexico and the European Union, effective August 1. The measure, justified on grounds of national security and border control, threatens to destabilize global trade.

In an escalation that threatens to redefine global trade relations, U.S. President Donald Trump announced this Saturday the imposition of a blanket 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the European Union. The measure, which represents one of the most aggressive protectionist actions of his administration, is scheduled to take effect on August 1 and could trigger a trade war with unpredictable consequences.

Unlike previous announcements, this new tariff policy was formally and directly announced through letters sent to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and the leaders of the European Union, subsequently published on her social media platform, Truth Social. This action represents a significant increase over the 25% tariff that had already been proposed earlier this year for certain products, consolidating a profound shift in Washington's trade policy.

The decision is not an isolated incident. It is part of a coordinated, multi-pronged trade offensive that the Trump administration has launched in recent weeks. Letters threatening similar tariffs have been sent to other key trading partners such as Canada, with a 35% tariff, and Brazil, with a staggering 50%, painting a picture of widespread protectionism that seeks to reshape the balance of economic power globally.

The White House has presented two distinct but intertwined arguments to justify this drastic measure, tailoring the narrative to each of the affected blocs.

In the letter addressed to President Sheinbaum, Trump directly links the tariff to national security, specifically the fight against drug trafficking. The justification focuses on Mexico's alleged lack of decisive action to curb criminal groups.

"Mexico has yet to stop the cartels attempting to turn all of North America into a drug playground," Trump's letter reads.

This argument takes on particular relevance as it comes just one day after Ovidio Guzmán, son of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, pleaded guilty to drug trafficking charges in a US court. The timing provides Trump with a powerful and media-friendly justification, allowing him to frame an economic decision as a necessary response to a proven and active security threat.

For the European bloc, the reasoning centers on the trade imbalance. Trump has described the US trade deficit with the EU as a "national security threat," an argument he has repeatedly used to justify his protectionist policies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded by expressing her willingness to negotiate, but warning that the EU will take "proportional countermeasures" if necessary, opening the door to a tariff retaliation that could escalate the conflict.

Perhaps the most disruptive element of Trump's strategy lies in a specific clause within the letter to Mexico, designed to neutralize the most common response in a trade dispute: retaliatory tariffs.

"If for any reason you decide to raise your own tariffs, then the amount you choose to raise will be added to the 30 percent we charge," Trump threatens in the text.

This tactic fundamentally changes the power dynamic. By eliminating the possibility of a symmetrical response, it forces the affected nations into a defensive posture, limiting their options to negotiation and concessions, rather than direct confrontation.

Global reactions have been swift, with markets and political leaders expressing deep concern about the instability this measure could generate. However, for the North American region, the most urgent and uncertain question is whether this new 30% tariff will apply to products that comply with the rules of origin of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The ambiguity in Trump's letter on this point undermines confidence in the trade agreement that underpins the region's economy. If tariffs are applied indiscriminately, the USMCA would be effectively weakened, opening a chapter of uncertainty for businesses and workers in all three countries.