US tourism in Spain slows, threatening to erode GDP
At last week's NATO summit , US President Donald Trump asserted that he loves Spain, but that he will make it pay for its refusal to increase defense spending to 5%. It is still too early to determine whether these invectives are eroding the country's image among Americans. But it is certain that the arrival of American tourists is slowing, and this threatens to erode the sector's GDP.
The latest tourism sector report from CaixaBank Research estimates that this loss of momentum could subtract up to one percentage point from Spain's tourism gross domestic product growth this year. And in a context where the travel industry is growing at a slower pace, from 6% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025, the slowdown in the United States market stands out as a "relevant" factor to consider, the bank points out.
The slowdown in the American market is greater in the country than in Europe as a whole.North American tourists are highly valued in Spain because they spend above average and are respectful of destinations. In cities like Barcelona, they already represent the largest group of foreign travelers, although their importance has been growing throughout the country: since 2019, arrivals of these visitors have increased by 28.3%, compared to 12.3% of total international arrivals. Last year, they represented 4% of the nearly 94 million foreign tourists and 7.1% of spending.
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The situation, however, has seen a change in trend since last November. CaixaBank Research indicates that spending with US cards in the country went from growing 17% year-on-year between January and October 2024 to falling -2.2% between November of that year and May 2025. In contrast, total spending with foreign cards slowed more moderately, with an increase that went from 11.1% between January and October 2024 to 8.5% from November to May. The INE tourist spending data confirms this trend.
The warning signs don't end there. Passenger arrivals from the United States have also slowed sharply since November. The phenomenon is much more intense in Spain than in the rest of Europe (see graph).
Is the country losing its appeal in this lucrative market? David César Heymann, economist at CaixaBank Research and author of the study, points out that arrivals of North American travelers to Spain grew much more in 2024 than in Europe as a whole (22.3% compared to 7.3%), hence the greater slowdown effect now.
It also remains to be seen whether the political climate and Spain's opposition to some of the Trump administration's initiatives are affecting tourism demand. CaixaBank doesn't mention any such reasons, unlike what's happening in Europe. Travel agencies and airlines do detect a sharp drop in travel to the United States . The country, they explain, is no longer seen as a friendly destination, and airlines have even had to lower prices to try to stimulate flights.
The analysis does, however, note a worsening of the United States' economic outlook following the onset of trade tensions. This could be "a source of weakness" in tourism demand, similar to the fall of the dollar against the euro. In this regard, the report recommends strengthening other long-haul markets, such as South America and Asia, to offset the activity.
For 2025, the entity certifies that tourism is leaving behind the strong expansion it experienced after the pandemic and entering a phase of more moderate growth. Thus, tourism GDP is expected to grow by 2.7%, slightly above the economy as a whole (2.4%), but well below the historical figures seen after COVID.
From January to April of this year, Spain welcomed 25.6 million international tourists, 7.1% more than the same period in 2024. Year-on-year growth at that time was much higher, at 18%. Furthermore, average tourist spending, an indicator used to measure visitor value, barely increased 2% in the first four months of the year, well below the 7.1% increase experienced last year. All this while tourist prices continue to grow above the CPI.
Even so, this activity remains at a record high, with its increasing weight in the productive structure despite debates surrounding its effects on housing costs and natural resources. While before the pandemic it accounted for 12.6% of GDP, it now contributes 13.1%.
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