A Soviet space probe lost in 1972 will fall to Earth in the coming days.

The Soviet capsule Kosmos 482 , an object that has remained in orbit for more than half a century, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in the coming days. This ancient craft, launched during the golden age of Soviet space exploration , is about to make an uncontrolled re-entry, sparking interest and speculation about its impact and historical significance.

The name assigned to it at the time is merely a generic term to conceal its true nature. In reality, it was a probe headed for Venus . It was launched on March 31, 1972, five days after its twin, which was named Venera —the Russian name for the destination planet—and assigned the number 8.

The previous probe, Venera 7 , had made history. It was the first spacecraft to land on the surface of Venus and transmit information from there. All previous attempts had failed: the planet's thick atmosphere delayed their parachute landing for over an hour, and during that time, the enormous pressures and temperatures destroyed the probes before they reached the ground. Venera 7 's landing was very bumpy.

Upon landing on the Venusian surface, the capsule tilted and its antenna lost direct communication with Earth. Only after several days of analyzing the extremely weak signal did Russian engineers manage to extract just under half an hour of data confirming the hellish conditions on Venus: 475°C and over 90 atmospheres of pressure. The equivalent on Earth would be one kilometer below sea level, and with enough heat to melt lead.

As a precautionary measure, during those early years of planetary exploration, both Russians and Americans usually sent at least two identical spacecraft, hoping that the failure of one wouldn't jeopardize the entire mission. Venera 8 was successful, but its twin wasn't. Its rocket placed it into orbit around Earth, as planned, but the final stage's firing, which was supposed to put it on an escape trajectory toward Venus, only lasted a couple of minutes, half of what was needed.

The probe was trapped in an elliptical Earth orbit, with an apogee of over 9,000 kilometers above the Earth, but a very low perigee. Continuing its policy of not naming probes until they were on their way with all their systems in order, after the failure, the Soviet Union gave it its preliminary name of Kosmos 482. Last month, Russia launched its 2583rd space object, which is unclassified but appears to be linked to the development of anti-satellite weapons.

In June 1972, just three months after launch, the Kosmos 482 capsule separated from its carrier spacecraft. This was roughly the time it was estimated to take to reach Venus, so it was thought that an internal timer signaled the release, believing it was approaching its destination. Later, declassified documents have shown that this was an intentional decision . This maneuver left the two spacecraft separated in nearly the same orbit.

Due to the slight friction with the upper layers of the atmosphere during the perigee passage in each orbit, the altitude of both vehicles gradually decreased. The main craft, much more fragile than the capsule, was destroyed nine years later. The capsule itself, more compact and with a spherical shape less susceptible to atmospheric friction, has remained in orbit until now. For more than half a century.

Recently, tracking teams have determined that the capsule's perigee was just over 150 kilometers away. It's impossible to maintain that level much longer, so its fall is imminent. Specialist Marco Langbroek of Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) estimates it will fall on May 10 .

What will fall to Earth? Essentially, the capsule that was supposed to land on Venus. A sphere weighing almost 500 kilos. It's engineered to withstand brutal temperatures and pressures, far exceeding those experienced on Earth. Previous models, which did reach Venus, withstood decelerations of 300 g without fragmenting.

Using telescopes and video cameras, recent photographs of the vehicle have been obtained. Although very blurry, they show an elongated, not entirely spherical shape. It's possible that the parachute was deployed many years ago (also following orders from the internal sequencer). In any case, it won't make any difference. The capsule will behave like a meteorite. Perhaps it will break into pieces or—more likely—survive in one piece. In the latter case, if it falls to solid ground and someone finds it, it will be an exceptional museum piece, a testament to a technology that has already been surpassed.

After slowing down in the atmosphere, it will hit the ground at about 250 kilometers per hour. Given its weight, the impact energy will be equivalent to detonating a quarter of a kilo of dynamite, which could certainly cause serious, albeit localized, damage.

Until shortly before reentry, it's impossible to predict the point of impact with any degree of accuracy. It could be anywhere on the planet between latitudes 53° north and 53° south. That includes much of Europe, Asia, and the Americas, and almost all of Africa, as well as a vast expanse of ocean. The odds, therefore, are that it will end up in the sea or desert. After all, in our daily lives, no one worries about being hit by a meteorite; so this threat shouldn't keep us awake at night either.