NATO halts clash between Trump and Sánchez

The government is buying time in the midst of a corruption crisis, but Spain is emerging weakened.

To prevent the decisive NATO summit being held this week in The Hague to greenlight the increase in the defense spending target for its member states from 2% to 5% of national GDP from ending in failure due to Pedro Sánchez's refusal to adopt such a demanding investment goal, amid the escalating war in the Middle East, the Alliance's Secretary General, Mark Rutte, has sought a prior agreement with the Prime Minister.

Sánchez has achieved the differential treatment he sought, but he must commit to meeting the "capacity targets" set by the organization. That is, the military personnel, resources, and infrastructure necessary to guarantee joint security.

Sánchez argues that our country can achieve this with an investment of 2.1% of GDP. For other governments, especially the United States, it is necessary to dedicate 5% of their GDP by 2030, which will entail doubling their budget. It seems difficult for Spain to maintain a deterrent capacity similar to that of other alliance countries with this uneven level of spending, especially given its position on the bloc's southern border.

But for now, NATO is dodging the prospect of a direct clash between Sánchez and Trump, who is demanding a common target of 5% of GDP to avoid a repeat of past failures by, among others, Spain. In a letter sent last week to Rutte, the Prime Minister argued that our country is not in a position to quintuple current investment, at 1.24% of GDP. This is despite the fiscal incentives granted by European authorities, such as not including these expenses in the deficit, the SAFE fund endowed with 150 billion euros to grant loans to EU governments, and subsidies from the European Defense Industry Program.

The truth is that Sánchez's obstacles to complying with NATO are not budgetary, but political. His parliamentary allies reject a structural increase in military budgets and have even spoken out against his plan to reach 2% of GDP by reallocating underutilized budgets from public accounts or accounting for investments in cybersecurity and the purchase of dual-use technologies. Sánchez is buying time amid his government's crisis after the emergence of the alleged scheme of illegal commissions in exchange for public works concessions, but Spain emerges weakened.