Political Earthquake in Europe: Hungary Challenges the ICC, Portugal Turns Right, and Spain Debates Key Law on Israel

The European political scene is in turmoil this May 20, 2025. Hungary formalizes its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, a decision welcomed by Israel. Meanwhile, analysis of the recent elections in Portugal confirms a drastic shift to the right with the rise of Chega. In Spain, the proposal to embargo arms from Israel continues its parliamentary process, reflecting internal divisions and social pressure.

The European political landscape is showing signs of reconfiguration and tension. Ideologically charged sovereign decisions, electoral results that break traditional molds, and polarizing legislative debates mark the day in various parts of the continent.

Hungary and the ICC: A Challenge to the International Order with Geopolitical Implications

In a move that has resonated strongly on the international scene, the Hungarian Parliament approved this Tuesday the withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). The decision supports the position taken by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has repeatedly accused the ICC of having become a "political body" rather than an impartial court of justice.

Significantly, Israel has publicly welcomed the Hungarian decision. This applause is not accidental. It comes at a time when the ICC is investigating alleged war crimes in the Palestinian territories, including the Gaza Strip, and where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself visited Hungary in the past in defiance of an arrest warrant issued by the Court.

Hungary's withdrawal from the ICC cannot be interpreted as an isolated act. It is a resounding declaration of sovereign nationalism and an explicit rejection of supranational jurisdiction in matters that Budapest considers sensitive or politically exploited.

Israeli support suggests an alliance of convenience between nations that feel singled out, or potentially threatened, by international institutions they perceive as hostile or biased. This move could have profound consequences, eroding the ICC's authority and claim to universality. It sends a worrying signal: states could attempt to circumvent international criminal justice if they have the political will and support of influential allies.

Within the European Union itself, Hungary's decision deepens the already existing gap between member states that defend the international rule of law and multilateral institutions, and those, like the Orbán government, that prioritize a more restrictive and jealous vision of national sovereignty. This act could embolden other leaders with authoritarian tendencies or under international scrutiny.

Portugal: Chega's Far Right Consolidates Its Rise and Breaks the Two-Party System

Post-election analyses of the recent Portuguese elections, whose data were consolidated between May 18 and 19, confirm a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Although the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged victorious and Luis Montenegro reaffirmed his position as prime minister, the most striking headline is the extraordinary growth of the far-right Chega party, led by André Ventura.

At various points during the vote count, Chega even surpassed the traditional Socialist Party (PS), securing a parliamentary representation that breaks with decades of two-party system in Portugal. Ventura proclaimed that "50 years of two-party system are over," a message that resonated with a segment of the electorate dissatisfied with traditional parties.

Chega's rise is not an exclusively Portuguese phenomenon. It is part of a broader trend of strengthening the right and far right in Europe. The current composition of the European Parliament already reflects this reality, with groups such as Patriots for Europe (PfE) and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) gaining ground.

This growth is due to a combination of factors, including perceived insecurity, economic crises, discontent with political elites, and concerns about immigration and national identity. The implications are direct for policymaking at both the national and EU levels, especially in areas such as immigration (also a hot topic in Spain with the debate over the new Immigration Regulation), national sovereignty versus Brussels directives, and the future of the European integration project itself.

Spain: Arms Embargo on Israel Advances Amid Political Tensions

In Spain, domestic politics continue to be influenced by the echoes of the Gaza conflict. The Congress of Deputies is currently debating a bill to impose an arms embargo on Israel. The parliamentary process for this initiative has received a key boost with the announcement by the Catalan party Junts that it will vote in favor. This support will allow the proposal to continue its legislative journey, highlighting the pressure on Pedro Sánchez's government to take a firmer stance against Israel's actions.

At the same time, the Spanish political debate is being stirred by other issues, such as the discussion surrounding the new Immigration Regulations and its implications for the immigrant population living and working in the country. Furthermore, partisan tensions persist, as do investigations into alleged corruption cases, such as the notorious "Ábalos case," which continue to generate friction between the Popular Party (PP) and the Socialist Party (PSOE).

Composition of the European Parliament: A Reflection of Political Changes

The backdrop for these national developments is the current configuration of the European Parliament (2024-2029). Understanding its composition is key to interpreting the continent's political dynamics.

Political Group Number of Seats Percentage of Seats

EPP (European People's Party / Christian Democrats) 188 26.11% S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) 136 18.89% PfE (Patriots for Europe) 84 11.67% ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) 78 10.83% Renew Europe 77 10.69% Greens/EFA 53 7.36% The Left (GUE/NGL) 46 6.39% ESN (Europe of Sovereign Nations) 25 3.47%

NI (Not registered) 33 4.58%