Who is the betting odds winner of the Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira fight?

There are just a few hours left until the T-Mobile Octagon in Las Vegas witnesses one of the most high-profile and important fights of the year. Former UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, who vacated his belt to try to conquer the lightweight division, will face former lightweight champion, Brazilian Charles Oliveira , in the main event of UFC 317 for the 155-pound (70.3 kilogram) title.

Fight Week has been very intense, and both Topuria and Oliveira expressed confidence in winning the fight before the fight card. On the one hand, the Spanish-Georgian comes into the fight undefeated throughout his professional career and with two consecutive victories against legends of the caliber of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. On the other hand, Oliveira is coming off a defeat to Michael Chandler in November 2024 and a split decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan in April of last year.

The debate has been going on for a long time. Much has been said about El Matador being favored over Do Bronx , since stylistically, the Brazilian would, a priori, be a good matchup for Topuria, given that he's a fighter who exposes himself a lot and the Spanish-Georgian boasts a devastating punch. But, at this point, it's interesting to ask the following question: Who, according to the betting, will win this fight?

The reality is that, since the odds were published by the various betting houses, the percentage of probability that Topuria will win the fight against Oliveira is very high. Thus, according to an average collected by this newspaper from various companies in the sector in our country, we can establish that Topuria's favoritism is enormous .

Putting the numbers into practice, El Matador's victory is being paid at 1.20 euros for every euro wagered , reflecting a probability of victory of between 80 and 85 percent for the Spanish-Georgian. In contrast, Oliveira's victory is being paid at around 4.40 euros for every euro wagered , which provides a percentage of between 15 and 20 percent, a huge difference considering this is a fight for the UFC world title .

If we go across the pond, following the American format, the trend remains the same: the bookmakers agree that Topuria is the clear favorite against Oliveira. Thus, Topuria has odds between -375 and -500, meaning you need to bet between $375 and $500 to win $100, while Oliveira appears with odds of +310 to +380, meaning a $100 bet could return between $310 and $380.

In summary, if the fight follows the sociological logic of betting, Topuria should easily defeat Oliveira, but we cannot forget that this is a fight for the UFC belt, where both contenders get the opportunity due to their elite level and both, in a sport as unpredictable as mixed martial arts, will have their chances to take the victory.