Customs duties: an agreement with vague outlines expected this Thursday between Washington and London

On his Truth Social account, the White House tenant announced Wednesday a "major press conference (Thursday) morning at 10 a.m. (4 p.m. in France), in the Oval Office, concerning an important trade agreement with representatives of a great and highly respected country." The American and British press are suggesting that this is the United Kingdom, but emphasize that the scope of what will be unveiled Thursday could be limited, or even reduced to the announcement of a framework for negotiations between the two countries.

"Any deal with the United States is more of a damage-limitation exercise than a real boost to the British economy," notes Jonathan Portes, an economist at King's College London. If confirmed, this deal will be the first since the tempestuous billionaire imposed massive tariffs on US-imported goods worldwide, before largely backtracking in the face of the upheaval in the international economic order.

Donald Trump, however, maintained prohibitive tariffs with China at a rate of 145% - 245% for certain sectors - to which Beijing responded with a rate of 125%. China and the United States are scheduled to meet this weekend in Switzerland to lay the foundations for trade negotiations. In recent weeks, Keir Starmer and Donald Trump have reported "productive negotiations" between their countries, linked by 250 years of history, which have forged a diplomatic and economic "special relationship" that has never truly been undermined.

Trade in goods between London and Washington remained balanced in 2024, according to official statistics, with the United Kingdom importing £57.1 billion worth of American goods and exporting £59.3 billion worth. London is thus relatively spared from the "reciprocal" customs duties announced on April 2 by President Trump, with a tax of only 10%, the lowest level. However, the European power still imposes a 25% tax on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which worries British manufacturers, as the United States represents their largest export market in 2024 (£9 billion, 27.4% of exports), outside the European Union.

The trade balance also largely favors the United Kingdom in services, with the country exporting £137 billion to the United States last year, compared to £61.2 billion in imports. But this sector remains, for now, on the sidelines of the trade war launched by Donald Trump. London and Washington have been negotiating for weeks, with the United Kingdom hoping to remove or mitigate American surcharges in exchange for concessions. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves met with her American counterpart Scott Bessent on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington at the end of April.