A lack of results would be a "grave" and "unacceptable" end: a few hours for an impossible treaty against plastic pollution

A new plenary session bringing together all delegates is planned for mid-afternoon, after the resounding failure of a clumsy attempt at a synthesis on Wednesday afternoon, and debates of great confusion.

But the chances of reaching an agreement after three years of negotiations seem very slim, given the deep divisions that remain between the two camps that have clashed on the issue.

On the one hand, a majority group of so-called "ambitious" countries, including the European Union, Canada, Australia, many Latin American, African and island countries, eager to clean the planet of the plastic that is beginning to plague it and affect human health.

On the other hand, a group of mainly oil-producing countries, which refuse any constraints on plastic production and any ban on dangerous molecules or additives.

For the so-called High Ambition Coalition, the text presented Wednesday was a document void of any ambition, with no obligations on countries, their volume of plastic production, or the elimination of problematic chemicals. It was solely an agreement on the management and disposal of existing plastic waste.

For the opposing camp, nicknamed "those who think the same thing" , led by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, the text exceeded several of their "red lines" , and above all did not define a "scope", that is to say an exact field of action for the text.

The talks are scheduled to end at midnight on Thursday and could extend into the night if diplomats are able to present a revised text by then.

Driven by a 2022 United Nations resolution, they have been trying for nearly three years to forge a "legally binding" text for states that tackles plastic pollution, including in the marine environment.

But under the watchful eye of petrochemical industry representatives present in the corridors and opposed to any coercion, they have already failed once to produce a common text during the last round of negotiations, in Busan, South Korea, at the end of 2024.

Less than 10% recycled

This new diplomatic sequence, which began in Geneva on August 5 , was supposed to finally lead to a common text.

The issue is all the more important as the planet has produced more plastic since 2000 than in the previous 50 years, mostly single-use products and packaging, and the trend is accelerating: if nothing is done, current production of some 450 million tonnes per year is expected to triple by 2060 , according to OECD forecasts. However, less than 10% is recycled.

On Thursday morning, regional meetings took place, as well as meetings of the coalition groups.

According to Aleksandar Rankovic of the think tank The Common Initiative, the text presented on Wednesday removed all the points in favor of the ambitious and thus took away the countries' negotiating power.

"There are two scenarios left: the bad and the very bad, and a lot of not-so-nice things in between," he told AFP.

" The bad scenario is if countries adopt a bad treaty, a text like the one presented on Wednesday ."

" The worst scenario is if they don't agree on anything , and they plan to meet again to find yet another synthesis, or if the text remains abandoned for a long time and is practically abandoned."

For the WWF, ambitious countries "have now recognized that there is no possible text that is acceptable to all UN members."

Their ministers now have the opportunity to put forward "their own text," said Zaynab Sadan, head of the plastics delegation of the environmental NGO WWF. "They must prepare to have their text adopted by vote. There is no other way to obtain a meaningful treaty," she said.

Swiss Environment Minister Albert Rösti told ATS that a lack of results in the Geneva talks would be "a serious" and "unacceptable" outcome.

Switzerland, the host country of the negotiations, now wants a text refocused on three main issues : an improvement in production, without a reduction target, a reduction or at least monitoring of problematic plastic products and a financing mechanism for developing countries must be included in an agreement.