Bayrou requests a vote of confidence from the Assembly: how will the day unfold?

Since 2022, the French have been regularly learning about new articles of the Constitution. This Monday, September 8, they are expected to witness the first rejected vote of confidence in the history of the entire Fifth Republic. Because Article 49, paragraph 1, similar to the now-famous Article 49.3 , which can even be found as a slogan on T-shirts and placards, has so far only been used by heads of government who were assured of a solid majority.

The principle is simple: after a general policy speech, or any other kind of declaration, the Prime Minister asks for the confidence of parliamentarians , which for them amounts to supporting the policy that is about to be implemented. It is also a rather convenient way for a camp that wants to govern to count its numbers. This is why, normally, votes of confidence take place when a new executive takes office. This is not the case here, since François Bayrou was appointed on December 13, 2024.

Another new development: the Prime Minister decided to activate Article 49.1, knowing full well that he would not be supported by the majority of MPs. However, as Article 50 specifies, in the event of a vote of confidence being rejected, "the Prime Minister must submit the resignation of his government to the President of the Republic." The last head of government to request a vote of confidence was none other than Jean Castex in 2020. That is, at a time when the presidential camp still held an absolute majority in the Assembly. Since the legislative elections that followed the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron has only a relative majority in the Palais-Bourbon , and must work with Les Républicains to hope to govern.

Following the dissolution and the 2024 legislative elections, the situation has become even more complicated, as no coalition—whether the left, the far right, or Macron's allied party with the right—has enough elected representatives to impose its policies. Thus, neither Elisabeth Borne, nor Gabriel Attal, nor Michel Barnier, nor even François Bayrou upon his arrival have requested the confidence of Parliament.

As he found himself in a deadlock in getting the 2026 budget adopted, according to the guidelines he announced in mid-July, the Béarnais announced on August 25 that he would submit to a vote of confidence. This he presented as a way of validating his diagnosis on the danger posed by the country's public deficit . And that the political forces reject, since the left, the extreme right, and even part of the right immediately made it known that they would vote against him, making his continuation mathematically impossible.

But how will things actually work? At 3 p.m., the Prime Minister will deliver a general policy statement in the Chamber, which should logically focus on the threat of debt and the cost-cutting efforts he believes are necessary to address it. Eleven speakers will then take the podium to respond and explain the position of each of the Assembly's political groups, indicating their vote in most cases.

The deputies will then be called in alphabetical order to submit a paper ballot outside the galleries, in the lounges, following the same procedure as when examining a motion of censure. Votes in public session are usually done electronically, using buttons on the parliamentarians' desks. Conversely, the counting in this specific case is done manually, before the result can be revealed. According to estimates from the office of the President of the Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet , the result should therefore be known around 7 p.m.

In a manner identical to what happens during the validation of a motion of censure, in the event of a majority that is unfavorable to confidence, François Bayrou will have no other choice but to submit his resignation to Emmanuel Macron within a fairly short period of time, which is not specified in the Constitution. Overthrown by a motion of censure in December after the use of Article 49.3 on the budget, Michel Barnier had waited until the following morning.

The only difference between 49.1 and 49.3: the quorum of deputies. While an absolute majority is required to pass a motion of censure, i.e. at least 289 votes out of 577, if all the seats are filled (they are currently 574 due to ongoing partial legislative elections), confidence is determined by a simple majority. This means that abstentions or blank votes also weigh in the balance, and that votes against can win if they are less than 289. For this to happen, they only need to be more numerous than votes in favor.

Narrative

"Given the political situation, this way of counting abstentions may not work in François Bayrou's favor," predicts constitutional expert Elodie Derdaele, a lecturer in public law at the University of Nancy. Despite his resigned status, his government should still be tasked by the president with managing "current affairs" while awaiting the appointment of a new executive. Or a potential dissolution. "Dissolving after the European elections was surprising, but this would typically be the kind of scenario where it seems logical, now that he can do it again, which was not the case at the time of Michel Barnier's censure," notes public law lecturer Arthur Braun, a constitutional specialist. The decision still rests with Emmanuel Macron, and him alone.