Budget, censorship, September 10... The stakes of François Bayrou's press conference this Monday

This is the start of a perilous political return for the Prime Minister. François Bayrou will hold a press conference at 4 p.m. this Monday, August 25, four days after being received by Emmanuel Macron at Fort Brégançon.

This comes amid calls to shut down the country on September 10 , supported by the left, led by La France Insoumise, while the government's proposed budget of €43.8 billion in savings is causing tension. Several issues are therefore expected to be addressed by the Prime Minister.

On deck this summer, he is entering a new phase of his attempt to persuade public opinion of the merits of his budget plan announced on July 15. This includes a fiscal "blank year" and the elimination of two public holidays . These are all points that have earned François Bayrou threats of censure in the Assembly from the left, including the Socialist Party, but also from the National Rally.

"It is impossible for this cruel policy to be implemented. That is why I am almost certain that the motion of censure will be voted on as early as September," Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared on TF1 on Saturday from the LFI summer university.

"The government must back down or it will be censored," added Socialist Party First Secretary Olivier Faure. As for the National Rally, it will present "a counter-budget," and if François Bayrou "doesn't listen to us, we won't be afraid to press the censorship button," warned Gironde MP Edwige Diaz on Saturday on BFMTV.

Enough to make the Prime Minister back down, who has been pleading his case for several weeks via a series of YouTube videos? "When school resumes, there will inevitably be a confrontation between reality and ideologies," he told AFP. While the €44 billion amount is "intangible," "the measures can all be discussed," he insisted, "ready to hear other proposals."

His leitmotif? Escaping the "hellish trap" of over-indebtedness. This summer, he mentioned a "contribution from the wealthiest," to be defined with parliamentarians. On Friday, he also promised to identify and eliminate possible "privileges" for politicians .

"I know I'm in the minority," he said in an interview with Le Parisien , published Saturday. Fate is the order of the day among his entourage. "The most likely outcome is that we'll fall," a minister close to François Bayrou told La Tribune Dimanche .

Although Emmanuel Macron gave him strong support this week in the columns of Paris Match , saying he "hoped" he could remain at Matignon until 2027, the head of government knows he is in the opposition's sights. To protest against the budget cuts, a "general strike" is expected for September 10.

Unions and left-wing political parties are calling for a demonstration , and several sectors, such as the railway sector, could be affected. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has expressed his support for the movement, which began online and called for a "blockade" of the country. The Socialist Party (PS) has explained that it wants to "support" the mobilization.

"It's: 'The country is facing great risks, look, we're going to block it!' How can we defend that?" asks François Bayrou in Le Parisien. "Everyone has the right to protest, but I don't believe that in the face of such a crisis, the French response can be to block the country," he continues in La Tribune Dimanche.

The man expected Tuesday at the CFDT's back-to-school event, then Thursday at the Medef's, wants "a back-to-school event that lives up to history, not a back-to-school of decomposition with mobilization, negotiation, and backtracking."

His ministers are expected to begin discussions with parliamentary groups "in the next two weeks," according to the Minister for Relations with Parliament, Patrick Mignola.

The government also has other projects in the pipeline, some of which are high-risk, such as the Corsican autonomy project , which is opposed by the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau .

The new leader of the Republicans regretted that the modifications suggested by the Council of State to the initial text, welcomed by François Bayrou and validated by the Corsican Assembly, which adopted it unanimously, minus one vote, had not been retained.

The opinion of the Council of State notably removed the notion of Corsican "community", "of singular link (of this community) to its land" and refused autonomous legislative power to the Collectivity of Corsica.

To be adopted, this constitutional reform must be voted on in the same terms by the National Assembly and the Senate, then, when they meet in Congress, by a three-fifths majority.

Among the other issues likely to be raised by the Prime Minister at this back-to-school exercise is New Caledonia. Overseas Minister Manuel Valls is trying to keep alive the Bougival agreement on the institutional future of the archipelago, rejected by the FLNKS separatists .

The executive also intends to present a new reform of unemployment insurance , which is already arousing opposition from the unions. It must also soon publish the decree on the multi-year energy program (PPE).

François Bayrou is finally determined to carry out some historic battles such as proportional representation in legislative elections and the "democracy bank" to finance political parties.