Decryption. Vote of confidence: these laws threatened by the probable fall of the Bayrou government

The end seems near. On September 8, the Prime Minister will seek the confidence of the deputies, but the opposition - the majority - has already announced that it will not grant it. Like that of Michel Barnier before him, François Bayrou 's government could therefore be overthrown . This would (once again) delay the adoption of several pieces of legislation.

Until a new Prime Minister is appointed, the current government team is expected to stick to "current business." It will then be up to the future Prime Minister to take up, or not, the bills left on his desk.

The 2026 budget proposal presented by François Bayrou will be one of the first to suffer. It must be submitted to Parliament by the first Tuesday in October at the latest, but will likely be revised if the government falls. In the event of a deadlock, a special law could be adopted to ensure the continuity of the state, as was the case after the censure of the Barnier government.

A bill, whose examination is already at an advanced stage, is also under threat: the one on "simplification of economic life," which provides for the abolition of low-emission zones (LEZs). The government was due to convene a joint committee (CMP) at the start of the school year to find a compromise between the two chambers.

Similarly, the organic law allowing for the postponement of provincial elections in New Caledonia risks suffering the predicted political crisis. It was due to be examined by Parliament just before the vote, scheduled for November. Its postponement raises fears of a new escalation of tensions in the archipelago, given that a consensus has not yet been reached on the electoral body. There is also urgency regarding the bill providing for "the organization of the 2030 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games," which was expected to be examined by the Assembly in October.

As for the numerous bills announced by the government before the summer break, they risk being shelved if the cast changes radically. Among them: the bill against the high cost of living in the overseas territories, the one on the regulation of private higher education, and the one on child protection. The judicial reform sought by Gérald Darmanin and that of the status of Corsica led by François Rebsamen, which were supposed to advance as soon as the school year begins, are also said to be on hold. We're not even talking about the bill on proportional representation in the legislative elections, promised by François Bayrou.

As for proposed legislation, things aren't much clearer. In principle, parliamentary initiative bills remain on the agenda in the event of a change of government... unless the new government decides to modify it. The final adoption of bills on the end of life , against fast fashion , or on the mandate of local elected officials , which have already been significantly delayed since the dissolution, could wait even longer.

The continued review of the "Gremillet" law, scheduled for this fall, is also likely to be postponed. The text is supposed to dictate France's multi-year energy planning. The same goes for the unpopular public broadcasting reform, which has already been repeatedly blocked in the twists and turns of parliamentary debate. The government's fate may also determine the law validating the A69 motorway, as well as the law including non-consent in the criminal definition of rape.