François Bayrou believes he can adopt proportional representation in the legislative elections by the beginning of 2026

Concrete announcement or a new way to wrest a reprieve? François Bayrou once again mentioned the adoption of proportional representation for the legislative elections this Sunday, June 29, on RTL. The Prime Minister assures that he has a "majority" to adopt his reform, which he intends to present after the budget debate (if he is not censored on that occasion), either at the end of the year or in January 2026.

What are we talking about? A change in the voting system for electing MPs, currently elected by a two-round majority vote. With proportional representation, each party would have a number of MPs equal to its percentage score.

The question remains as to the scope within which this proportion will be calculated: on national, regional, or departmental lists? And with what minimum threshold for obtaining a seat (2.5%, 5%, etc.)? A mixed solution with only a portion of the seats affected by proportional representation is conceivable.

Aware that there are as many ways of considering proportional representation as there are groups in the Assembly , François Bayrou is careful not to specify his thoughts. His statement also refers to an old promise made upon his appointment as head of government: moreover, the president of the Modem has been defending this idea since 2007. He would rather lean towards proportional representation on a departmental basis.

François Bayrou believes he can count on a large portion of the left's votes (LFI and the ecologists are in favor), even though the Socialist Party and the Communist Party have already expressed their doubts. PCF national secretary Fabien Roussel, for example, considers that "it is not the priority," although proportional representation was included in his 2022 program.

These votes would be joined by those of the National Rally. Threatened with no confidence in the budget this fall, François Bayrou is no doubt hoping that the far right will be reluctant to bring down the government if it commits to adopting a reform favored by Marine Le Pen. With one minor detail: the National Rally favors proportional representation with a majority bonus, a vote tailored to allow it to obtain an absolute majority.

Above all, the Prime Minister risks weakening the "common foundation" on which his government rests. Within the Macronist arc, only his party, the Modem, is in favor. This weekend, in the National Council, Les Républicains reaffirmed their fierce opposition to such a voting system. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, also president of LR, even put his departure in the balance if he were forced to carry such a bill (electoral issues depend on Beauvau). Moreover, the Vendéen is only waiting for the right opportunity to resign and fully launch his presidential race. Failing to reform the voting system, François Bayrou could offer him this opportunity.