Friedrich Merz painfully elected German chancellor

In an unprecedented scenario in Germany, it took a second round of voting in the Bundestag for the leader of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) to finally narrowly become head of government.

At 69, after having barely won early parliamentary elections at the end of February, Merz obtained 325 votes out of 630 deputies, during a second vote organized in the afternoon and made necessary by a failure in a first round in the morning, which caused astonishment.

Although the secret ballot election of Friedrich Merz was expected to be a mere formality after the conclusion of a majority coalition agreement with the Social Democrats of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he initially failed to reach the necessary threshold.

Never in the history of post-war Germany had a chancellor candidate suffered such a fate. In Germany's parliamentary system, the head of government is elected by the members of parliament.

This setback illustrates the fragility of the Christian Democratic leader and the coalition with which he intends to govern Europe's largest economy, in a world in the midst of geopolitical upheaval and under pressure both from the Trump administration and domestically from a rising far right.

Slingers

Friedrich Merz will therefore begin his four-year term weakened, even though he was supposed to bring stability after the national political crisis triggered by the fall of the Scholz government in November. This dramatic turn of events immediately undermines his promises to revive the country, which is in economic crisis, and Europe.

Already unpopular with the public, he is being challenged within his own Conservative ranks for having gone back on a campaign promise: he recently relaxed the very strict national budget spending rules.

The Chancellor did this in order to finance a vast programme of rearmament of the country, in the face of the Russian threat and that of an American military disengagement from the European continent, and of modernisation of the country, costing several hundred billion euros.

This forced election is "a snub" and "will inevitably have an impact on his debut as chancellor and then on the coming government period," Claire Demesmay, a professor at Sciences Po Paris and associate researcher at the Marc Bloch Center in Berlin, told AFP.

"And at the international level too, it's really not a good sign," she adds, as Friedrich Merz is expected in Paris and Warsaw on Wednesday.

The new chancellor, who is still to be officially sworn in by the head of state on Tuesday, knew that he would not benefit from any grace period.

But he did not expect this parliamentary humiliation, as his closed face revealed in the aisles of the assembly after the first vote. He fell 18 votes short, a sign of his inability to immediately secure the votes of the conservatives and social democrats.

The far right in ambush

Amid the chaos, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party rubbed its hands and immediately called for new elections.

"We are ready to assume government responsibility," declared Alice Weidel, whose movement is now ahead of the conservatives in some polls, having already obtained 20% in the legislative elections.

"You have failed, today's events are unprecedented in this chamber," echoed another AfD official, Bernd Baumann.

This turbulence comes as Germany finds itself at a moment of geopolitical change, forced to free itself from the military tutelage of an American ally that has become unpredictable and to reinvent its economic model.

A supporter of unwavering support for Ukraine, Mr. Merz promised new "leadership" in Europe, which involves closer ties with Paris and Warsaw.

To counter the Russian threat, his coalition wants to continue upgrading the German army, as well as essential infrastructure such as roads and schools, which are in poor condition after years of underinvestment.

On the domestic front, Friedrich Merz also intends to push back the AfD by taking a tough stance on immigration.

His success in power will also depend on reaching an agreement with his social democratic allies, who have secured key ministries: Finance for Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil and Defence, where the outgoing Boris Pistorius remains.