In New Caledonia, negotiations on the institutional future fail

"No agreement has been reached," the Overseas Minister acknowledged on Thursday during a press conference, following a three-day "conclave" held in an isolated hotel 2.5 hours from Noumea, chosen for greater confidentiality and to encourage peaceful dialogue.

This blockage, added Manuel Valls, prevents in particular from "resolving the question of the composition of the electoral body", at the origin of the insurrectional violence of May 2024, "and that of the exercise of the right to self-determination" of the French archipelago in the South Pacific.

Since the last referendum in 2021, boycotted by the separatists, the political situation in the archipelago has been frozen. This election left the process without a clear outcome, leading to the riots of May 2024, which left 14 dead and caused more than two billion euros in damage, against a backdrop of acute economic crisis.

Negotiations on the future status of New Caledonia were relaunched in early 2025. Several rounds of discussions took place, and the former Prime Minister made three trips there, managing to bring back to the table two camps whose positions were difficult to reconcile and who were no longer talking to each other.

During this last cycle, two projects were examined in depth, explained the Minister of Overseas Territories on Thursday.

"One based on sovereignty with France," defended by the minister, and "the other based on federalism within the French Republic," supported in particular by the Loyalists, one of the branches of the non-independence movement.

But "no project has been able to achieve consensus," Mr. Valls lamented. According to him, the Loyalists' project "in our eyes, called into question the unity and indivisibility of New Caledonia," through "a de facto partition project."

"Blocking point"

The project presented by the government, which provided for "dual nationality, French by law and Caledonian", as well as an "immediate transfer and delegation of sovereign powers", had aroused the indignation of non-independence supporters, who believed that it amounted to de facto confirming the independence of the territory.

For non-independence MP Nicolas Metzdorf, "the major sticking point" is "the transfer of sovereign powers (...) to New Caledonia", before a possible delegation to France.

"This is a proposal we reject," he told AFP. "We are sticking to our proposal for a federated state with a strengthening of provincial powers," he continued.

The other loyalist leader, Sonia Backès, assured during a press conference that she had "avoided catastrophe for New Caledonia", assuring that the absence of an agreement "is not chaos".

"Thanks to the self-sacrifice and unity of the Loyalists and the Rassemblement-LR, as well as the support of their metropolitan representatives, no agreement has been signed. New Caledonia therefore remains French," these non-independence parties welcomed in a press release.

For its part, Calédonie Ensemble, a moderate non-independence party that supported Manuel Valls's plan, laments "a collective failure," and wants to convince people "that an agreement is possible." Because, it says in a statement, "giving up on consensus means giving up on peace."

Crucial provincial elections

The next political deadline for New Caledonia is the provincial elections, which are crucial because they determine the composition of the local government. They were originally scheduled for 2024 before being postponed by the May riots. The Council of State has set the latest date for them to be held at November 30, 2025.

"The government will have to examine the plan to call and organize provincial elections in accordance with the legal framework currently in force," that is, with a frozen electorate, Manuel Valls indicated.

Since 2007, this freeze on the electoral body has excluded from provincial elections most people who arrived in New Caledonia after November 1998, the date of ratification of the Noumea Accords.

Despite the failure, Manuel Valls welcomed the debate, which "continued in a respectful manner," and said that "points of convergence" had been identified. A monitoring committee, set up by the government, should help maintain a framework for dialogue in the coming months, he said.

"I continue and will continue to work to prevent a return to violence," the minister insisted, calling on all political and social forces to "engage with the State for peace, dialogue and reconstruction."