Kanaky-New Caledonia: What you need to know before the historic summit for the future of the island planned in Bougival

The term conclave is definitely in fashion: from the papal election to pensions, it is also used for the negotiations on Kanaky – New Caledonia. Rightly so: as in May, in the commune of Deva and under the aegis of the Minister of Overseas Territories, Manuel Valls , the political delegations of the archipelago will meet in Bougival (Yvelines), then at the ministry from this Wednesday, July 2. With Emmanuel Macron, and without time limit, according to the Élysée, which specifies that the discussions will continue "without a predetermined deadline" . These negotiations will be closely scrutinized by the UN, which reiterated to France on June 13 its obligations in terms of decolonization.

Yet, two months after Manuel Valls tabled the independence-association project – a historic first for the state – positions remain very far apart. Particularly on the part of the anti-independence right, that of former minister Sonia Backès and MP Nicolas Metzdorf. However, it is notable – and valuable – that everyone is around the table, which was not a given after the fractures that came to light following the May 2024 revolts , during which fourteen people were killed, including eleven young Kanaks.

The FLNKS separatists, whose delegation is led by MP Emmanuel Tjibaou, received the mandate of the movement last Saturday, meeting in convention in Pouébo, in the northeast of Grande Terre. This is clear: "The FLNKS will remain firm on its ultimate objective which is the achievement of full sovereignty because this is its vocation as a national liberation movement," recalls the secretary general of the Caledonian Union and leader of the FLNKS political bureau, Dominique Fochi. For the Front, the project presented in Deva must be "the basis of discussions" , namely "a nation with state-to-state links with France" .

The whole question lies in this point: what will Emmanuel Macron put on the table? Will he disavow Manuel Valls and withdraw the independence-association project presented in May, which included the creation of an associated state with France and dual nationality? Or will he rise to the occasion by taking the measure of his historical responsibility , like Michel Rocard and Lionel Jospin with the Matignon Accords in 1988 and the Noumea Accords in 1998?

The stakes are high, with provincial elections looming, due next November at the latest. With which electoral body? Without a positive outcome to the discussions, it will be the one provided for in the Noumea Accord, which is therefore frozen. Much to the dismay of anti-independence activists, who have referred the matter to the Council of State via a QPC (Qualification of Priority Constitutional Questions), filed by the association Un cœur une voix (One Heart, One Voice), an offshoot of the right.

Moreover, "Les Républicains" have been putting on the pressure, threatening to leave François Bayrou's government in the event of an independence-association project. It is precisely these national exploitations of the Caledonian issue that have lit the fuse, whether in the 1980s or last year. Without the lesson being learned.