Neither support nor condemnation: Emmanuel Macron's diplomatic "at the same time" on the conflict between Israel and Iran

Neither condemnation nor explicit support. On the fourth day of the conflict between Israel and Iran, Emmanuel Macron is attempting to adopt a balanced stance to prevent the entire Middle East from escalating.

The two countries have continued their exchange of strikes since Friday evening, triggered by a massive Israeli attack against Iranian military and nuclear sites .

"We do not share the approach" chosen by Tel Aviv, nor "the need for a military operation," the head of state explained during a press conference at the Élysée Palace a few hours after the start of hostilities.

But there's no question of distancing oneself too much. The Israeli strikes "have reduced Tehran's uranium enrichment capacity" and "they therefore have effects that are in line with the desired direction," the president explained.

The Israelis explain that these strikes are aimed at dismantling Iran's uranium enrichment program for medical and scientific purposes, as well as for military purposes. According to expert estimates, Iran possesses approximately 5 tons of uranium enriched to more than 20%, including several hundred kilograms at 60%, suitable for use in the creation of a nuclear weapon.

But for such use to target Israel, it would be necessary to reach approximately 90% . If the United States were to begin a new round of negotiations with Iran on June 15 on this issue, the Israeli strikes have changed the situation, pushing Emmanuel Macron to try not to anger either Iran or Benjamin Netanyahu.

"Israel is launching a preemptive war. But it is doing so without respect for international law. We are therefore forced to distance ourselves," a member of the Common Core MP's Foreign Affairs Committee told BFMTV.

Although the Israeli government itself has spoken of "preemptive strikes" because it considers the Iranian nuclear threat imminent, international law prohibits any preemptive war.

"At the same time, if Iran goes all the way, Israel could clearly be wiped off the map. And that's inconceivable. France must therefore also be at its side on this issue."

This "Iranian march toward nuclear weapons threatens the region, Europe, and collective stability more generally," Emmanuel Macron summarized to journalists this Friday. "The Iranian threat to Israel is immediate and vital," insisted François Bayrou on Monday.

Until now, neither France nor the European Union have been at the forefront of negotiations with Iran. For months, it has been the United States that has been negotiating with the Iranian regime. But the current situation is pushing Emmanuel Macron to try to regain control, as he has already tried to do with the Ukrainian issue , without much change on the ground so far.

To avoid escalation between the two countries, the president called for the "resumption of dialogue" and "negotiation" to resolve "the Iranian nuclear issue."

"We have a president who deliberately remains ambiguous, without really clarifying his intentions regarding Israel or Iran," regrets Ayda Hadizadeh, Socialist MP and president of the France-Iran friendship group in the National Assembly.

It's hard to argue with him. Emmanuel Macron's refusal to attack Iran head-on is largely due to its strategic geographic location, bordering the Strait of Hormuz . This passage alone accounts for nearly a third of the world's oil transported by sea . On Saturday, Esmail Kowsari, a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guards, warned that Iran was considering closing it if the strikes continued, prompting oil prices to soar.

In a context of a global economy weakened by the rise in customs duties , the time is rather for caution in this area. The head of state therefore preferred to explain that he was ready to participate "in operations of protection and defense" of Israel in the event of Iranian "reprisals" , if France was "in a position to do so", without specifying the contours.

Does this mean that Paris would be prepared to send ground troops? If so, with what mandate and what means? Are French forces large enough if they were to be deployed in Ukraine as part of a "reassurance force" in the event of an agreement between Moscow and Kiev after more than four years of conflict?

The Élysée Palace's announcement is all the more surprising given that Emmanuel Macron has had frosty relations with Benjamin Netanyahu for months. France has called for recognition of the State of Palestine and has repeatedly denounced the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip , which has been relentlessly bombarded since the attacks of October 7, 2023.

"The president is probably trying to bring the European Union on board" to help ease the pressure between Israel and Iran, says Jean-Marie Collin, a consultant on international security issues.

"But for the moment, Brussels diplomacy has never had enough weight to trigger real political choices from its leaders," regrets the director of ICAN, the campaign to abolish nuclear weapons.

A section of the left is calling for a debate to be held in the National Assembly on the Iranian nuclear issue, with the hope of forcing Emmanuel Macron to clarify his intentions.