Pension reform: Bayrou plays the illusionist to try to make people forget his failure

A failure? What failure? The Prime Minister attempted, in a balancing act, to step over the fiasco of the conclave to which he largely contributed, while giving the illusion that he remained in control, even though his political destiny is now slipping away from him. Late Thursday afternoon, François Bayrou took the floor to paint a rosy picture of the pension discussions he launched in February, which ended in disarray on June 23.

Employee organizations (CFDT, CFE-CGC, CFTC) and employers (Medef and CPME) were working on rewriting the 2023 pension reform (raising the legal retirement age from 62 to 64). Denouncing the closed-door debates, the CGT, FO, and U2P (employers' union) had chosen to leave the table. This "conclave," which the "social partners" were not requesting, was conceived by the executive as a bargaining chip offered to the Socialist Party in exchange for the latter's promise last February that it would not censure the government.

Throughout the negotiations, the Medef (French employers' association) stuck to its two red lines : no rollback of the legal retirement age and no question of reaching into their pockets to finance possible social concessions or the rebalancing of the pension system. Conversely, the unions still present agreed to scale back their ambitions, but demanded substantial concessions from employers on three issues: the postponement of the automatic full-rate retirement age (currently set at 67, which the CFTC wanted to reduce to 65); the consideration of arduous work and the improvement of retirement pensions for women with children, the big losers of the 2023 reform.

This Thursday, François Bayrou began by stating that the conclave had produced " remarkably useful work ," despite the displeasure of those who saw it as a failure. He then listed the (rare) points of agreement between unions and employers. He thus welcomed the fact that the "social partners" agreed on the need for a balanced pension system by 2030, but did not dwell on the differences between the unions, which were keen to place the burden on employees and businesses, and the employers, who were fiercely opposed to any form of financial contribution.

He assured that the negotiators had agreed to (modestly) improve the pensions of women with children, by calculating pension levels , no longer on the average salary of the 25 best years, but on 24 (for those who have had one child) or 23 years (for those who have had two or more children). He also recalled that the unions and employers had laboriously arrived at a new retirement age without reduction, which could be set at 66.5 years... A very small step forward.

Forgetting the major bone of contention that was the question of the 64-year-old, the Prime Minister assured that one of the only subjects still being debated was the consideration of arduousness: the Medef refuses that employees exposed to three arduousness factors (heavy loads, vibrations and awkward postures) be automatically granted the right to retire earlier.

François Bayrou concluded by assuring that the "social partners" would continue discussions for another "two or three weeks." If no agreement is reached, the executive will draft a legislative text on pensions, to be examined by Parliament next fall. "I'm not going to spend my July with the employers," Pascale Coton, a negotiator for the CFTC, warned us testily. "I don't see how we can force the Medef to give in on hardship. If we haven't managed to reach an agreement in five months, what are we going to do for two more weeks?"

It is unlikely that the Prime Minister has convinced the French any more, at least judging by a recent opinion poll conducted by Elabe for BFM TV: 63% of those polled believe that the government " bears major responsibility" for the failure of the conclave. Furthermore, 67% see the operation as a "political stunt to gain time and avoid censure by the Socialist Party ." Finally, 52% of those polled (+5 points since May 28) want a motion of censure to be adopted by the Assembly.

Time will tell whether this last wish is granted. What is certain is that with the failure of the conclave , the future of the government hangs by a thread. The National Rally will once again play the role of arbiter, while the Socialist Party has just tabled a motion of no confidence, which is expected to be voted on by the entire left.